COTTON: The 2011/12 U.S. cotton estimates reflect marginally lower domestic mill use compared with last month. With no change in the production estimate, the total cotton supply is unchanged.
Domestic mill use is lowered 100,000 bales, reflecting lower than anticipated activity in recent months. The export estimate is unchanged. Ending stocks are raised 100,000 bales to 3.8 million, for a stocks-to-use ratio of 26 percent. The forecast range for the average price received by producers of 87 to 93 cents per pound is narrowed 1 cent on each end.
The 2011/12 world cotton estimates include sharply higher supplies, due to higher beginning stocks and production. Beginning stocks are raised 1.6 million bales, mainly reflecting increased estimates for India’s production in 2009/10 and 2010/11 by the India Cotton Advisory Board. World 2011/12 production is raised 505,000 bales due largely to higher estimated production for Pakistan, which is based on ginning arrivals.
Forecast world consumption is reduced slightly, including decreases for Thailand, the United States, and others. World trade is raised, due to a 1.0-million-bale increase in the import forecast for China. World ending stocks are now forecast at 60.8 million bales, an increase of nearly 14 million bales from the beginning level. The stocks-to-consumption ratio of just over 55 percent is sharply higher than the past two seasons and about equal to the 2008/09 level.
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