No changes are made on the supply side of the U.S. all rice and rice-by-class 2013/14 balance sheets. Total 2013/14 all rice use is raised 1.0 million cwt to 221.0 million—all on the combined medium- and short-grain rice side. All rice domestic and residual use is increased 4.0 million cwt to 124.0 million with long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain domestic and residual use each raised 2.0 million to 91.0 million and 33.0 million, respectively.
Partially offsetting the increase in domestic and residual use is a 3.0 million cwt decline in projected total exports to 97.0 million—the lowest since 2008/09. The 2013/14 long-grain export projection is lowered 2.0 million cwt to 65.0 million, and combined medium- and short-grain exports are lowered 1.0 million to 32.0 million. The rough rice export projection is lowered 2.0 million to 33.0 million, and milled exports are lowered 1.0 million (rough-equivalent basis) to 64.0 million.
The export pace has dropped off to some markets in the Western Hemisphere including Venezuela, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Haiti, largely due to stronger competition from exporters in South America and Vietnam. Additionally, U.S. exports to African markets and Japan have been slower than expected.
The increase in domestic and residual use is based primarily on total use implied from the March 1 rice stocks, as reported by the National Agricultural Statistics Service on March 31. USDA’s March 1 rice stocks were lower than expected and lower than most trade expectations. The all rice 2013/14 August 1 stocks are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 27.3 million, the lowest since 2003/04—all in combined medium- and short-grain stocks.
The 2013/14 long-grain season-average price range is forecast at $15.30 to $15.90 per cwt, unchanged from last month, and with the midpoint forecast at $15.60 per cwt—the highest on record (series starts in 1982/83). The medium- and short-grain season-average price range is forecast at $19.70 to $20.30 per cwt, up $1.00 per cwt on each end of the range from a month ago, and with the midpoint forecast at $20.00 per cwt—the highest price since the 2008/09 record of $24.80 per cwt.
The all rice season-average price range is forecast at $16.60 to $17.20 per cwt, up 30 cents on each end of the range, and with the midpoint at $16.90 per cwt—the highest price on record. The reduced prospects for 2014/15 medium- and short-grain production in the Sacramento Valley of California due to drought and reduced irrigation supplies have significantly raised medium-grain prices in California.
USDA’s Prospective Plantings (March 31) reported intended plantings of medium-grain rice in California at 420,000 acres, down 18 percent from the previous year and the smallest since 1998. Additionally, old-crop supplies of medium-grain rice in California are drawing down, tightening the current supply situation. Finally, Australia’s drought is also increasing medium-grain prices as Australia is a major exporter of medium-grain rice and a primary U.S. export competitor.
The global 2013/14 rice supply and use balance sheet has changed little compared to a month ago, despite many country-level supply and use changes. World rice production is increased 0.8 million tons to a record 475.6 million tons, primarily due to larger projections for Brazil, Pakistan, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Global consumption is raised 0.5 million tons, largely due to increases for Brazil, South Korea, Sub-Saharan Africa, Vietnam, and the United States.
Global rice trade for 2013/14 is nearly unchanged from a month ago at 40.8 million tons; however, there were some significant country-level changes including increases in exports for Pakistan and Thailand; and decreases for Vietnam and the United States. On the importer side, projected rice imports for 2013/14 are raised for Bangladesh, China, Vietnam, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Global 2013/14 ending stocks at 111.2 million tons are down 0.5 million from last month, but up 1.0 million from the prior year. Ending stocks projections are raised for China, Brazil, and the European Union, but reduced for Pakistan, Thailand, Vietnam, and the United States.
See the full WASDE report.
Complete Coverage of April 9 USDA Reports
Read AgWeb's full coverage of the April 9 reports, which include USDA's Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).