WASDE: Global Wheat Supplies Projected Higher

November 9, 2011 01:35 AM
 

U.S. wheat supplies for 2011/12 are lowered 9 million bushels based on updated production estimates for the states resurveyed following the September 30 Small Grains report. Adjustments to production in these states, where significant acreage remained unharvested in early September, lowers production estimates for Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat and durum. An increase in white wheat production is partly offsetting. Projected use for 2011/12 is unchanged for all wheat; however, domestic food use is projected higher for Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat and lower for HRS wheat. Projected exports are raised for HRS and lowered for HRW. All wheat ending stocks are lowered 9 million bushels in line with the production change. The season-average farm price is projected lower at $7.05 to $7.75 per bushel compared with $7.10 to $7.90 last month, reflecting the latest reported prices.

Global wheat supplies for 2011/12 are projected 2.6 million tons higher mostly reflecting higher production in Kazakhstan and EU-27. Kazakhstan production is raised 2.0 million tons as an extended harvest period capped off a nearly ideal growing season, confirmed by the latest government reports. EU-27 production is raised 1.2 million tons with further upward revisions for France and Spain and higher reported production in the United Kingdom and Czech Republic. Partly offsetting these increases is a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Argentina and 0.3-million-ton reductions for both Algeria and Ethiopia.

World wheat trade is raised for 2011/12 with higher expected imports for China, a number of African countries, including Morocco and Algeria, as well as for Brazil and several FSU-12 countries neighboring Kazakhstan. Partly offsetting is a reduction in projected imports for South Korea where more corn feeding is expected. Exports are raised 1.0 million tons each for EU-27 and Russia reflecting larger supplies in EU-27 and the continued heavy pace of shipments from Russia.

Global wheat consumption for 2011/12 is raised 2.4 million tons with increased feeding expected for Kazakhstan, Brazil, and Serbia. Larger crops in Kazakhstan and Serbia support more wheat feeding. Recent rains in southern Brazil have reduced wheat quality in some areas raising the potential for more feeding. Higher consumption is also expected for EU-27, Ethiopia, Kenya, and several smaller FSU-12 countries. Global ending stocks are projected 0.2 million tons higher. Rising stocks in Kazakhstan, China, and Morocco are partly offset by reductions in major exporting countries including Russia, Argentina, and EU-27

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