COTTON: The month’s U.S. cotton estimates include slightly higher ending stocks in 2012/13 and 2013/14 resulting from a reduction in the current season export estimate, which reflects the recent pace of shipments.
Forecast production for 2013/14 remains at 13.5 million bales, the same as last month; however, estimates of planted area, harvested area, and average yield have been updated to reflect recent information. The 2013/14 projections of domestic mill use and exports are unchanged from last month. The forecast range for the marketing-year average price received by producers is lowered 3 cents on each end to 70 to 90 cents per pound.
Projections of world cotton stocks are also raised in both 2012/13 and 2013/14 due to a combination of higher production and lower consumption. For 2012/13, production is raised in Australia, while consumption is reduced in Pakistan and India, but is raised in Vietnam – these adjustments reflect recent data revisions.
For 2013/14, production is raised in India due to favorable early season weather conditions, while forecast consumption is lowered in Pakistan and Russia. The balance sheet for China is unchanged this month and assumes continuation of current policies regulating the national reserve acquisition and release prices.
Coverage, Analysis of the July 11 USDA Reports
See all of the report data, coverage and analysis of the July 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Crop Production reports.