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WASDE: Meat Production Forecast Reduced from Last Month

October 12, 2011
 
 

The 2012 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is reduced from last month. Beef production is reduced due to slightly lower cattle slaughter during the year and slower growth in carcass weights. Broiler production is forecast lower as sharper declines are expected in bird numbers during late 2011 and into 2012. Turkey production is raised as prices are expected to favor expansion during 2012. Pork production is unchanged. For 2011, beef and broiler production forecasts are reduced, but pork and turkey production is increased. Egg production is forecast higher in the last quarter of 2011 and for 2012.

The beef import forecast is raised slightly for 2011. Beef export forecasts for 2011 and 2012 are raised slightly as strong global beef demand supports continued gains in U.S. exports to a number of Asian markets. Small changes are made to U.S. pork imports for 2011 and 2012 and pork exports for 2011. Broiler exports are raised for 2011 and 2012 on strong demand in a number of countries and a relatively weak dollar.

Cattle prices are forecast higher for the remainder of 2011 and through 2012. Strong demand is expected to carry into next year along with tight cattle supplies. Hog prices are raised for 2011 and 2012 on demand strength and support from lower beef and broiler production. Broiler prices are lowered for the last quarter of 2011 and the first quarter of 2012 as weakness in domestic demand and current overhanging supplies pressure prices.

Milk production forecasts for 2011 and 2012 are unchanged from last month. Commercial exports are forecast higher for 2011. Fat and skim-solids ending stocks for 2011 are lowered.

Cheese, butter, and whey prices are forecast higher for both 2011 and 2012, but the nonfat dry milk (NDM) price forecast is reduced for 2011 and unchanged for 2012. Class III prices are raised for 2011 and 2012 on the increased price forecast for cheese and whey. The Class IV price is unchanged for 2011 as the higher butter price is mostly offset by a lower NDM price forecast. However, for 2012 with an unchanged NDM price forecast, the Class IV price forecast is raised due to higher butter prices. The all milk price is forecast at $20.10 to $20.20 per cwt for 2011, and $18.05 to $18.95 per cwt for 2012.

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RELATED TOPICS: Beef, Dairy, Poultry, Livestock, Pork, Cattle

 
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