OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at
103.3 million tons, up 2.6 million from last month as higher
soybean and cottonseed production are only partly offset by
lower peanut production. Soybean yields are forecast at 44.0
bushels per acre, 1.1 bushels above last month=s trend yield
projection, and equal to last year=s record yield. The first
survey-based forecast of U.S. soybean production is a record
3.4 billion bushels, 88 million above the July projection, and 74
million above last year=s crop. Projected soybean exports are
raised 65 million bushels to 1.435 billion. The sharp increase in
exports reflects strong export sales, especially to China,
stronger projected import demand for China, and reduced
soybean stocks in South America at the beginning of the
2010/11 marketing year. China soybean imports are raised to
49.5 and 52 million tons, respectively for 2009/10 and 2010/11.
Soybean crush is raised 5 million bushels to 1.65 billion
reflecting a small increase in domestic soybean meal demand.
Soybean ending stocks are projected at 360 million bushels,
unchanged from July.
Soybean and product prices all increased this month. The U.S.
season-average soybean price for 2010/11 is projected at $8.50
to $10.00, up 40 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean
meal prices are projected at $250 to $290 per short ton, up
$10.00 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are
projected at 36.5 to 40.5 cents per pound, up 2.5 cents on both
ends of the range.
Global oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at 439.7
million tons, down 1 million from last month. Reductions for
sunflowerseed and rapeseed are mostly offset by higher
soybean production. Sunflowerseed production is reduced by 1
million tons each for Russia and Ukraine. Persistent drought
and excessive heat in July and early August sharply reduced
yield potential for both countries. Rapeseed production is
reduced for EU-27, Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus. Higher global
soybean production reflects the larger U.S. crop. Other changes
include higher rapeseed production for Australia, lower
sunflowerseed production in EU-27, lower cottonseed
production for Pakistan, and increased cottonseed production
for India.
U.S. changes for 2009/10 include increased soybean crush and
exports and lower ending stocks. Crush is raised 5 million
bushels to 1.75 billion reflecting increased domestic soybean
meal disappearance. Soybean exports are increased 10 million
to a record 1.47 billion bushels. Soybean ending stocks are
projected at 160 million bushels, down 15 million from last
month. Soybean oil ending stocks are raised to 3.18 billion
pounds reflecting sharply lower projected use for methyl ester
production.
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