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WASDE Oilseeds: Soybean Exports, Production Higher

August 12, 2010

 OILSEEDS:  U.S. oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at 

103.3 million tons, up 2.6 million from last month as higher 
soybean and cottonseed production are only partly offset by 
lower peanut production.  Soybean yields are forecast at 44.0 
bushels per acre, 1.1 bushels above last month=s trend yield 
projection, and equal to last year=s record yield.  The first 
survey-based forecast of U.S. soybean production is a record 
3.4 billion bushels, 88 million above the July projection, and 74 
million above last year=s crop.  Projected soybean exports are 
raised 65 million bushels to 1.435 billion.  The sharp increase in 
exports reflects strong export sales, especially to China, 
stronger projected import demand for China, and reduced 
soybean stocks in South America at the beginning of the 
2010/11 marketing year.  China soybean imports are raised to 
49.5 and 52 million tons, respectively for 2009/10 and 2010/11.  
Soybean crush is raised 5 million bushels to 1.65 billion 
reflecting a small increase in domestic soybean meal demand.  
Soybean ending stocks are projected at 360 million bushels, 
unchanged from July.
 
Soybean and product prices all increased this month.  The U.S. 
season-average soybean price for 2010/11 is projected at $8.50 
to $10.00, up 40 cents on both ends of the range.  Soybean 
meal prices are projected at $250 to $290 per short ton, up 
$10.00 on both ends of the range.  Soybean oil prices are 
projected at 36.5 to 40.5 cents per pound, up 2.5 cents on both 
ends of the range.
 
Global oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at 439.7 
million tons, down 1 million from last month.  Reductions for 
sunflowerseed and rapeseed are mostly offset by higher 
soybean production.  Sunflowerseed production is reduced by 1 
million tons each for Russia and Ukraine.  Persistent drought 
and excessive heat in July and early August sharply reduced 
yield potential for both countries.  Rapeseed production is 
reduced for EU-27, Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus.  Higher global 
soybean production reflects the larger U.S. crop.  Other changes 
include higher rapeseed production for Australia, lower 
sunflowerseed production in EU-27, lower cottonseed 
production for Pakistan, and increased cottonseed production 
for India.
 
U.S. changes for 2009/10 include increased soybean crush and 
exports and lower ending stocks.  Crush is raised 5 million 
bushels to 1.75 billion reflecting increased domestic soybean 
meal disappearance.  Soybean exports are increased 10 million 
to a record 1.47 billion bushels.  Soybean ending stocks are 
projected at 160 million bushels, down 15 million from last 
month.  Soybean oil ending stocks are raised to 3.18 billion 
pounds reflecting sharply lower projected use for methyl ester 
production.

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RELATED TOPICS: Marketing, USDA, Analysis, Exports

 
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