Note: The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was not published in October 2013 due to the Federal Government shutdown.
RICE: All rice supplies for 2013/14 are increased nearly 3.2 million cwt or 1 percent from the September forecast due entirely to an increase in production. U.S. all rice production in 2013/14 is forecast at 188.7 million cwt, 3.7 million or 2 percent above the September forecast due to an increase in yield.
Average all rice yield is estimated at a record 7,660 pounds per acre, up 149 pounds per acre from the September estimate. Harvested area is unchanged at 2.46 million acres. Long-grain rice production is up 2.5 million cwt to 129.0 million, and combined medium- and short-grain rice production is raised 1.2 million cwt to 59.7 million cwt.
The all rice import forecast is lowered 0.5 million cwt to 22.0 million (all in long-grain) based on U.S. Census Bureau data to date and expectations of import needs for the remainder of the marketing year.
On the use side for 2013/14, all rice domestic and residual use is unchanged from the September forecast; however, the export projection is increased 2.0 million cwt to 100.0 million. Long-grain rice exports are raised 2.0 million cwt to 68.0 million, and combined medium- and short-grain rice exports are unchanged at 32.0 million. All rice ending stocks are forecast at 31.2 million cwt, up 4 percent from September, but down 15 percent from a year ago.
The 2013/14 long-grain rice season-average farm price range is projected at $14.50 to $15.50 per cwt, up 50 cents on each end of the range from last month. The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $16.80 to $17.80 per cwt, up 50 cents per cwt on each end of the range. The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $15.20 to $16.20 per cwt, up 50 cents per cwt on each end of the range.
Global total supplies of rice for 2013/14 are lowered more than the decrease in total use resulting in a drop in world ending stocks. World rice production is lowered 3.6 million tons from the September projection to 473.2 million, still a record, and 4.2 million larger than the preceding year. The decline in global production is due mostly to lower production forecasts for Brazil, China, India, Nigeria, and Pakistan, which are partially offset by increases for Bangladesh, Colombia, and the United States.
India’s 2013/14 rice crop is lowered 3.0 million tons to 105.0 million because of unfavorable weather mostly in eastern and southeastern areas and a decrease in expected harvested area. Cyclone Phailin and extremely heavy rains in the states of Orissa and Andhra Pradesh have lowered crop prospects. China’s rice crop is lowered 0.5 million tons to 141.5 million based on a recent report from the Agricultural Counselor in Beijing.
Global rice consumption for 2013/14 is lowered 1.5 million tons due mostly to a decline in India. Global rice trade is changed little from the September projections; however, India’s 2013/14 exports are raised 700,000 tons; and Pakistan and Vietnam are lowered 100,000 and 300,000 tons, respectively. Export projections are also lowered for Argentina, Brazil, Russia, and Turkey.
Nigeria’s imports are raised 600,000 tons to 3.0 million. Global 2013/14 ending stocks are projected at 106.5 million tons, down 0.8 million from the September projection due mostly to decreases for China, India, and Pakistan, which is partially offset by an expected increase for Vietnam.