RICE: U.S. rice supplies in 2012/13 are raised 12.5 million cwt or 5 percent to 247.0 million cwt as beginning stocks and production are increased 5.0 million and 8.0 million, respectively.
Conversely, the import forecast is reduced 0.5 million cwt to 21.5 million because of the availability of larger domestic supplies. Beginning stocks for 2012/13 (ending stocks for 2011/12) are raised 5.0 million cwt as 2011/12 domestic and residual use is lowered based on the Rice Stocks report released on June 29.
The higher-than-expected stocks reported by USDA as of June 1 implied lower 2011/12 usage than previously estimated during the March through May period and a reduction in the annual estimate as well. Rice production in 2012/13 is raised 4 percent to 191.0 million cwt this month due mostly to an increase in harvested area as indicated by the Acreage report released on June 29.
Harvested area for 2012/13 is raised 107,000 acres to 2.64 million, but is still the lowest since 1987/88. Total use for 2012/13 is raised 9.0 million cwt to 218.0 million as domestic and residual use and exports are increased 5.0 million and 4 million, respectively. Ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected at 29.0 million cwt, up 3.5 million, or 14 percent from a month ago.
The 2012/13 long-grain rice U.S. season average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $13.00 to $14.00 per cwt, down $1.50 cents per cwt on each end of the range from last month compared to $13.40 per cwt for 2011/12. The combined medium- and short-grain SAFP is projected at $15.50 to $16.50 per cwt, down $1.75 per cwt on both ends from a month ago, compared to $15.70 per cwt for 2011/12. The 2012/13 all rice SAFP is projected at $13.80 to $14.80 per cwt, down $1.50 per cwt on each end of the range compared to $14.10 per cwt for 2011/12. Rice price projections for 2012/13 are lowered due mostly to an increase in supplies for both long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain rice.
Global 2012/13 rice production and ending stocks are reduced from last month, and consumption and trade are raised slightly. Global production is projected at 465.1 million tons, still a record despite decreases totaling 1.4 million mostly due to reductions for India and Ecuador. These reductions are partially offset by increases for Egypt, Vietnam, and the United States.
India’s crop is projected at 100.0 million tons, down 2.5 million from last month, but still the second largest harvest on record. The delayed and slow progress of 2012 monsoon rains has reduced production prospects in India. Egypt’s rice crop is raised 0.7 million tons to 4.5 million due to an increase in area as reported by the Agricultural Counselor in Cairo. Ecuador’s crop is reduced 250 thousand tons because of pest and disease problems.
Global exports in 2011/12 are raised slightly due mostly to an expected increase in U.S. exports, which is partially offset by a decrease for Ecuador. Global imports are raised for China and several African countries. Global consumption for 2012/13 is raised slightly to a record 466.8 million tons. World ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 102.5 million tons, down 1.7 million from last month, and 1.7 million below the previous year. The decrease in ending stocks is due mostly to a decline for India.
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