WASDE: Rice Average Milling Yield Raised to 71%

February 10, 2014 05:05 AM
rice field 2

RICE: Slight revisions are made to the U.S. all rice and rice-by-class 2013/14 supply and use balance sheets. All rice domestic and residual use is unchanged at 120.0 million cwt; however, long-grain domestic use is raised 1.0 million to 89.0 million and combined medium- and short-grain domestic use is lowered 1.0 million to 31.0 million. The all rice export forecast is raised 1.0 million cwt to 100.0 million with combined medium- and short-grain exports raised 1.0 million to 33.0 million and long-grain rice exports unchanged at 67.0 million. Rough rice exports are increased 1.0 million cwt to 36.0 million, and brown and milled rice exports are unchanged at 64.0 million (rough-equivalent basis). The increase in the export forecast is due to higher-than-expected exports of medium-grain rice to Turkey as reported in the U.S. Export Sales report. All rice ending stocks are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 27.3 million with long-grain stocks down 1.0 million to 16.3 million, and combined medium- and short-grain stocks unchanged at 8.7 million.

The 2013/14 average milling yield is increased 0.75 percentage points to 71.0 percent based on milling yield data from warehouse stored loan data for long-, medium-, and short-grain rice provided by the Farm Service Agency (FSA). This is the highest milling yield achieved since 2009/10 and is a full percentage point higher than last year as U.S. crop conditions were mostly favorable throughout the 2013 growing season.

The 2013/14 long-grain season-average price range is narrowed to $15.10 to $15.70 per cwt, up 30 cents on the low end of the range and lowered 10 cents on the high end—the midpoint of the range is raised 10 cents from last month. The combined medium- and short-grain season-average price range is narrowed to $17.20 to $17.80 per cwt, up 90 cents on the low end of the range and an increase of 50 cents on the high end—midpoint of the range is raised 70 cents from last month. The all rice season-average price range is narrowed to $15.70 to $16.30 per cwt, up 40 cents on the low end of the range and unchanged on the high end—the midpoint of the range is raised 20 cents from last month. The reduced prospects for 2014/15 medium-grain production in the Sacramento Valley of California due to drought and reduced irrigation supplies have significantly raised medium-grain prices in California beginning in January. Additionally, export demand for medium-grain rice is up nearly 12 percent from last year as U.S. medium-grain export commitments from Turkey are more than twice the level of 2012/13 according to the U.S. Export Sales report showing commitments through the end of January.

Global 2013/14 rice supply and use projections are little changed from last month. Global 2013/14 rice production is forecast at a record 471.5 million tons up 0.4 million from last month—the largest increases for Bangladesh and the United States. U.S. milled production is changed due entirely to the change in the milling yield to 71.0 percent from 70.25 percent. The Bangladesh crop is raised because of better expected yields due to favorable weather. Global consumption and trade are up slightly from last month. World ending stocks are lowered marginally from a month ago to 105.0 million tons.



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