Total U.S. oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at 101.7 million tons, down slightly due to a small reduction in cottonseed. Soybean exports are increased 20 million bushels to 1.59 billion reflecting record export commitments (shipments plus outstanding sales) through November. With projected crush unchanged, soybean ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected at 165 million bushels, down 20 million from last month.
The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2010/11 is projected at $10.70 to $12.20 per bushel, unchanged from last month. The soybean meal price projection is also unchanged at $310 to $350 per short ton. Soybean oil prices are projected at 45 to 49 cents per pound, up 2.5 cents on both ends of the range.
Global oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at 442.6 million tons, up 1.9 million tons from last month. Foreign oilseed production accounts for most of the change with increases for soybeans, rapeseed, sunflowerseed, and cottonseed. Global soybean production is projected at a 257.8 million tons, up 0.4 million mainly due to an increase for Canada. Global rapeseed production is projected at 58.4 million tons, up 1.2 million due to gains for Canada and EU-27. Canadian rapeseed production is raised 0.9 million tons to 11.9 million based on the latest survey results from Statistics Canada. Higher-than-expected yields account for the change. EU-27 rapeseed production is increased due to higher yield estimates for Germany, United Kingdom, and Romania. Other changes this month include increased sunflowerseed production for EU-27, increased cottonseed production for Brazil and Australia, and reduced cottonseed production for Pakistan.
Global oilseed trade is projected at 112.2 million tons, up 0.9 million from last month. Increased soybean exports from the United States and Canada account for most of the change. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 70.3 million tons, down 1 million, as lower soybean stocks in Brazil and the United States are only partly offset by higher rapeseed stocks in Canada.