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WASDE: Rice Production Higher Compared to Last Month

November 9, 2011

U.S. all rice production in 2011/12 is forecast at 188.1 million cwt, 1.2 million above last month due to an increase in yield. Average all rice yield is estimated at 7,167 pounds per acre, up 44 pounds from last month, and the second highest yield on record. Harvested area is unchanged at 2.62 million acres. Long-grain rice production is raised 0.7 million cwt to 117.5 million, while combined medium- and short-grain production is increased 0.4 million to 70.6 million. No changes are made to rice use for either all rice or the rice by-class forecasts. All rice domestic and residual use is forecast at 127.0 million cwt, and all rice exports are forecast at 91.0 million, both down from a year ago. All rice ending stocks are forecast at 37.5 million cwt, up 1.2 million from a month ago, and a decrease of 10.9 million from the previous year.

The long-grain, combined medium- and short-grain, and all rice 2011/12 season-average farm price forecasts are unchanged from last month at $13.50 to $14.50 per cwt, $15.50 to $16.50 per cwt, and $14.00 to $15.00 per cwt, respectively.

Global 2011/12 rice supply and use are lowered from a month ago. World 2011/12 production is forecast at a record 461.0 million tons, down 0.4 million from last month due mainly to decreases for Burma, Cambodia, Laos, and Thailand, which are partially offset by an increase for China. Thailand’s 2011/12 rice crop is lowered nearly a million tons as losses in the main-season crop from recent flooding are partially offset by an expected re-planting of some of the main season crop in the Northern Region along with an expected record dry-season crop. Flooding also lowered crop prospects in Burma, Cambodia, and Laos. China’s 2011/12 crop is raised 2.0 million tons to a record 141.0 million, due to an increase in harvested area. Harvested area is increased based on recent indications from the government of China. The increase in global consumption is due mostly to an increase for China. Global exports are lowered slightly due to reductions for Burma and Cambodia, which are partially offset by increases for Argentina and Brazil. Global ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected at 100.6 million tons, down 0.8 million from last month, but an increase of 2.6 million from the previous year.


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