RICE: U.S. 2013/14 rice supplies are increased 5.6 million cwt or 2 percent because of increases in beginning stocks and production. Imports are unchanged from a month ago. U.S. rice production in 2013/14 is forecast at 185.1 million cwt, up 3.7 million from last month due both to an increase in area harvested and yield. Harvested area is estimated at 2.46 million acres, up 15,000 acres from last month. Harvested area estimates are raised for all states except Mississippi and Missouri which are lowered. The average yield is estimated at a record 7,511 pounds per acre, up 105 pounds per acre from last month, with increases in all states except California and Texas. Record yields are forecast for Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Texas. Long-grain rice production is forecast at 126.5 million cwt, up 1.8 million from last month. Combined medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 58.5 million cwt, up 1.9 million from a month ago. All rice beginning stocks for 2013/14 are raised 1.9 million cwt from last month to 36.4 million (rough-equivalent basis) based on USDA’s Rice Stocks report released on August 27.
All rice domestic and residual use for 2013/14 is raised 4.0 million cwt to 116.0 million, down 2 percent from revised 2012/13. The export projection is increased 2.0 million cwt to 98.0 million due mainly to the increase in exportable supplies—all of the increase in combined medium- and short-grain rice exports. All rice ending stocks are lowered slightly to 30.0 million cwt, with long-grain ending stocks increased 0.2 million and combined medium- and short-grain stocks reduced 0.9 million.
The 2013/14 long-grain season-average farm price range is projected at $14.00 to $15.00 per cwt, unchanged from last month compared to $14.40 per cwt for 2012/13. The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $16.30 to $17.30 per cwt, up 50 cents per cwt on each end of the range from last month compared to a revised $16.70 per cwt for 2012/13. The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $14.70 to $15.70 per cwt, up 20 cents per cwt on each end of the range from last month compared to $14.90 per cwt for 2012/13.
Projected global 2013/14 rice ending stocks are nearly unchanged from last month as the changes on the supply and use sides nearly balance. Global rice production is projected at a record 476.8 million tons, down 1.2 million tons from last month, primarily due to smaller crops forecast for Brazil and China. China’s 2013/14 rice crop is lowered 1.0 million tons to 142.0 million, down 1 percent from 2012/13. Hot dry weather in the lower Yangtze River Valley and in the southwest stressed mostly the single rice crop. Rice production is likely to be negatively affected in Hunan, Jiangxi, and Anhui provinces. Brazil’s 2013/14 rice crop is lowered 0.2 million tons to 8.3 million due to a 3 percent decrease in area. Global consumption is lowered 0.9 million tons due to expected declines for India, China, and the Philippines. Global exports are raised slightly from a month ago largely due to an increase in India that is partially offset by a decrease in Brazil. Import projections are raised for Iran and Panama and lowered for the Philippines. Global ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 107.4 million tons, down less than 100,000 tons from last month, but up 2.2 million from the previous year. Ending stocks are raised for Argentina, Iran, and the Philippines but lowered for Brazil, China, South Korea, and Panama.
Coverage, Analysis of the Sept. 12 USDA Reports
See all of the report data, coverage and analysis of the Sept. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Crop Production reports.