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WASDE: Rice Supplies Up 5%

July 11, 2014

RICE: U.S. all rice supplies in 2014/15 are raised 12.5 million cwt or nearly 5 percent to 279.8 million, the highest since 2010/11, as beginning stocks and production are raised 0.5 million and 13.0 million, respectively. Conversely, the import forecast is lowered 1.0 million cwt to 21.0 million. All rice production for 2014/15 is forecast at 226.0 million cwt, up 13.0 million or 6 percent due entirely to an increase in area.

All rice average yield is estimated at 7,469 pounds per acre, nearly the same as last month, but 3 percent below record 2013/14. All rice total use for 2014/15 is raised 10.0 million cwt or 4 percent to 240.0 million, the highest since 2010/11, as domestic and residual use and exports are each increased 5.0 million to 133.0 million and 107.0 million, respectively. Ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 39.8 million cwt, up 2.5 million.

Changes to U.S. 2013/14 rice supply and use include larger imports, lower domestic and residual use, larger exports, and higher ending stocks. All rice imports for 2013/14 are forecast at 23.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million from last month, due mostly to an unexpectedly large May shipment of broken rice from Thailand reported by the Bureau of the Census. Domestic and residual use for 2013/14 is lowered 1.0 million cwt to 123.0 million based largely on NASS’ Rice Stocks report showing larger than expected stocks as of June 1. Exports for 2013/14 are raised 1.5 million cwt to 93.5 million based on data from the Bureau of the Census through May and data from the weekly U.S. Export Sales report through early July.

The 2014/15 U.S. long-grain rice season-average farm price is projected at $12.00 to $13.00 per cwt, down 80 cents per cwt on each end of the range from last month. The 2014/15 combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $17.00 to $18.00 per cwt, down $1.20 per cwt from a month ago. The 2014/15 all rice price is projected at $13.50 to $14.50 per cwt, down 90 cents per cwt on each end of the range from last month. Larger domestic supplies of both long-grain rice and medium-grain rice along with plentiful supplies among most of the major global exporters will exert downward pressure on prices.

Global 2014/15 rice supplies are reduced due to both lower beginning stocks and production. Beginning stocks for 2014/15 are lowered 0.6 million tons due chiefly to reductions for China and the Philippines, partially offset by an increase for Vietnam. Global production is projected at a record 479.4 million tons, down 1.3 million from last month owing mostly to a decrease in India, partially offset by increases for Vietnam and the United States. India’s 2014/15 rice crop is projected at 104.0 million tons, down 2.0 million from last month attributed to the slow and erratic start to the Southwest Monsoon. Global trade and consumption are changed little from a month ago.

U.S. 2014/15 exports are raised 160,000 tons from a month ago. World ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 108.5 million tons, down 2.1 million from last month, and 3.0 million below the revised 2013/14 stocks forecast. Ending stocks projections for 2014/15 are lowered for India, China, and the Philippines, partially offsetting increases for Brazil, Vietnam, and the United States

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