OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean exports for 2010/11 are projected down 10 million bushels from last month. The slower-than-expected shipment pace through March combined with increased export competition resulting from larger crops for Brazil and Paraguay leave U.S. exports projected at 1.58 billion bushels. Although there are no changes in the U.S. soybean meal supply and demand projections, the soybean crush is reduced 5 million bushels to 1.65 billion due to an increase in the meal extraction rate. Seed use is reduced to reflect plantings for 2011 reported in the March 31 Prospective Plantings report. Residual use is raised based on indications from the March 31 Grain Stocks report. U.S. soybean ending stocks remain unchanged at 140 million bushels.
The U.S. season-average soybean price range is projected at $11.25 to $11.75 per bushel, up 15 cents on the bottom and down 35 cents on the top of the range. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $340 to $360 per short ton, down 10 dollars on the top of the range. The soybean oil price is projected at 53 to 55 cents per pound, up 1.5 cents on the bottom and down 0.5 cents on the top of the range.
Global oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at 447 million tons, up 2.8 million tons from last month. Higher soybean, sunflowerseed, and rapeseed production more than offsets lower cottonseed production. Global soybean production is increased 2.6 million tons to 261 million.
Soybean production for Brazil is projected at a record 72.0 million tons, up 2 million from last month as ample moisture and favorable late-season weather in the southern states improved yield prospects. Soybean production for Paraguay is projected at 8.1 million tons, up 0.6 million, also based on higher yields. Global rapeseed production is raised 0.2 million tons to 58.6 million due to increased output in Russia. Global sunflowerseed production is projected higher as increased production in Argentina and Turkey more than offset reductions for India and Russia. Other changes include reduced cottonseed production for Pakistan and Turkey, and higher cottonseed production for Brazil. Malaysia palm oil production is reduced 0.5 million tons to 17.5 million due to lower-than-expected yields.
Global oilseed supplies and ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected higher this month while crush is reduced. Lower soybean crush, led by Argentina and China, is only partly offset by increased rapeseed crush, with the largest gains in Mexico, Pakistan, and United Arab Emirates. Global oilseed stocks are raised 2.5 million tons, with the largest gains for soybeans in Brazil and Argentina.