WASDE: Soybean Production Projected Lower

October 12, 2011 02:49 AM
 

U.S. oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 91.6 million tons, down 0.8 million from last month. Soybean production is forecast at 3.06 billion bushels, down 25 million based on lower harvested area and yield. Harvested area is lowered 147,000 acres to 73.7 million. The soybean yield is projected at 41.5 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushels. Sunflowerseed and canola production are projected lower this month while peanuts and cottonseed production are projected higher.

U.S. soybean exports for 2011/12 are reduced 40 million bushels to 1.375 billion reflecting the slow pace of export sales and strong early season export competition from South America. The September 1 stock estimate of 215 million bushels indicated higher-than-expected residual use for 2010/11. As a result, the 2011/12 residual use is projected at 32 million bushels, up 9 million from the previous estimate. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 160 million bushels, down 5 million from last month.

Prices for soybeans and products are all reduced this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2011/12 is projected at $12.15 to $14.15 per bushel, down 50 cents on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $335 to $365 per short ton, down $25 on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 53 to 57 cents per pound, down 2 cents on both ends.

Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 453.5 million tons, up 0.5 million from last month. Global soybean production is projected at 258.6 million tons, down 0.4 million mainly due to the lower U.S. crop. Soybean production is raised for India and Ukraine. Offsetting is a small reduction for Canada based on the latest survey information from Statistics Canada. Global sunflowerseed production is raised this month based on increased yields for Russia, EU-27 and Turkey, and increased area in Argentina. Rapeseed production is reduced for Canada based on lower yields reported in the most recent survey from Statistics Canada. Rapeseed production is also reduced for Russia and Belarus. Other changes include increased peanut production for Argentina, and increased cottonseed production for Brazil. Global oilseed stocks for 2011/12 are increased 0.5 million tons to 73.0 million with soybeans accounting for most of the change.

U.S. oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 92.4 million tons, up 0.7 million from last month.  Soybean production is projected higher, partly offset by declines for peanuts and cottonseed.  Soybean production for 2011/12 is projected at 3.085 billion bushels, up 29 million due to higher yields.  Soybean ending stocks are projected at 165 million bushels, up 10 million as higher supplies are only partly offset by increased exports.  Other changes for 2011/12 include reduced food use of soybean oil reflecting increased use of canola and palm oil, increased use of soybean oil for biodiesel, and reduced food use for 2010/11.

Soybean crush for 2010/11 is increased 5 million bushels to 1.65 billion reflecting higher-than-expected crush reported for July.  With soybean exports unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 225 million bushels, down 5 million from last month.  Other changes for 2010/11 include increased use of soybean oil for biodiesel and reduced food use.  Soybean oil used for production of methyl ester was reported record high for July by the U.S. Census Bureau. Soybean oil stocks are projected at 2.84 billion pounds, up slightly from last month.

Soybean and product prices are all projected higher for 2011/12.  The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $12.65 to $14.65 per bushel, up 15 cents on both ends of the range as higher corn prices provide support.  Soybean meal prices are projected at $360 to $390 per short ton, up $5.00 on both ends of the range.  Soybean oil prices are projected at 55.5 to 59.0 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents on both ends of the range.

Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 453.0 million tons, up 1.5 million tons from last month.  Production increases for soybeans, rapeseed, sunflowerseed, and cottonseed are only partly offset by lower peanut production.  Soybean production is projected higher for the United States and India.  India=s soybean production is raised 0.7 million tons to a record 10.5 million due to higher planted area.  Canola production for Canada is increased 0.6 million tons to a record 13.2 million based on higher area and yield reported in the most recent report from Statistics Canada.  Harvested area is projected record high despite excessive rainfall and flooding in parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba that prevented some area from being planted.  Canada=s canola production is also raised for both the 2009 and 2010 crops based on the same report.  Other changes include higher sunflowerseed production for EU-27, higher cottonseed production for China, lower cottonseed production for Pakistan, and lower peanut production for India.

 

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