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WASDE: Tight Rice Ending Stocks

May 10, 2012

 

RICE: Tighter U.S. 2012/13 all rice ending stocks, forecast down 21 percent from 2011/12 are expected to result in higher rice prices. U.S. 2012/13 all rice supplies are forecast at 239.0 million cwt, down 6 percent from 2011/12. 
 
Beginning stocks and production in 2012/13 are both forecast lower from a year ago, while imports are forecast 7 percent larger. Beginning stocks, at 34.0 million cwt, are down 30 percent from 2011/12. U.S. rice production in 2012/13 is projected at 183.0 million cwt, down 1 percent from 2011/12. 
 
Planted area in 2012 is forecast at 2.56 million acres, down 5 percent from the previous year and the smallest area since 1987/88. Harvested area is estimated at 2.53 million acres. Average all rice yield is projected at a record 7,225 pounds per acre, up 2 percent from the previous year’s crop. The projected yield is estimated based on a linear trend by rice class, 1990/91-2011/12.
 
U.S. 2012/13 total all rice use is projected at a 212.0 million cwt, 4 percent below the previous year. U.S. domestic and residual use is projected at 123.0 million cwt, the same as 2011/12. The use of rice in beer brewing has trended down in recent years and contributed to a near stagnant per capita consumption of rice. 
 
Exports are projected at 89.0 million cwt, 8 percent below revised 2011/12 exports. Despite an expected increase in global trade, competition for key markets will be keen as competitor supplies rise, particularly in Asia. U.S. all rice ending stocks in 2012/13 are projected at 27.0 million cwt, 21 percent below the previous year with a stocks-to-use ratio of 12.7 percent—the lowest since 2007/08. The average milling yield used for 2012/13 is 70.25 percent based on the 2007/08-2011/12 average rates. 
 
The U.S. 2012/13 long-grain rice season-average farm price is projected at $14.50 to $15.50 per cwt, compared to a revised $13.20 to $13.60 for the previous year. The combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $17.25 to $18.25 per cwt, compared to $15.50 to $15.90 for a year earlier. 
 
The 2012/13 all rice price is projected at $15.30 to $16.30 per cwt, compared to a revised $13.90 to $14.30 per cwt for 2011/12. U.S. prices are expected to strengthen on a forecast tighter domestic supply situation for both long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain rice, despite an expected record global rice crop, particularly among the major Asia exporters.
 
Global 2012/13 total supply and use are each projected to reach record levels at 570.6 and 465.7 million tons, respectively, resulting in a 0.7- million increase in world ending stocks. Global 2012/13 rice production is projected at a record 466.4 million tons, up 3.1 million from 2011/12. Record rice crops are projected in Asia. 
 
In contrast, rice crops in Western Hemisphere exporters are forecast lower than the previous year as producers switch to more profitable crops. In contrast, Brazil’s rice production is forecast to expand in 2012/13 from the previous year’s weather-reduced crop. Global 2012/13 consumption is projected at a record 465.7 million tons, up nearly 2 percent from the previous year. Global exports in 2012/13 are projected at a marketing-year record of 35.1 million tons, up 1.1 million from 2011/12. Large imports are projected for Nigeria, Iran, the EU-27, and Indonesia. Global ending stocks are expected to increase 0.7 million tons to 104.9 million.
 
Note: The rice supply and use series for Cambodia and Laos have been revised back to 2005/06 and 1999/2000, respectively, to more accurately reflect reported per capita consumption, trade, and to incorporate ending stocks estimates. Cambodia and Laos rice production estimates for 2011/12 are 4.3 million and 1.4 million tons, respectively, down 1.1 and 0.5 million from the April WASDE report, and deviate from official Cambodia and Laos published estimates.
 
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