OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean exports for 2011/12 are increased 15 million bushels this month to 1.29 billion. The increase partly offsets reduced export prospects for South America resulting from drought-reduced soybean crops.
The U.S. soybean crush is raised 15 million bushels to 1.63 billion due to stronger-than-expected domestic soybean meal disappearance. Soybean oil balance sheet adjustments include increased production, reduced food use, and increased use for methyl ester production reflecting the most recent data published by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
Seed use is lowered to reflect plantings for 2012 reported in the March 30 Prospective Plantings report. Residual use is reduced based on indications from the March 30 Grain Stocks report. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 250 million bushels, down 25 million from last month.
Soybean and soybean product prices are all projected higher this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price range is projected at $12.00 to $12.50 per bushel compared with $11.40 to $12.60 last month. The soybean meal price is projected at $335 to $355 dollars per short ton compared with the previous projection of $310 to $340. The soybean oil price is projected at 52.5 to 54.5 cents per pound compared with the previous projection of 50.5 to 54.5 cents per pound.
Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 440.6 million tons, down 5.2 million from last month. Foreign production accounts for all of the change. Brazil soybean production is forecast at 66 million tons, down 2.5 million from last month as warm temperatures and a lack of rainfall since late February in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul further reduced yield and production prospects.
Argentina and Paraguay soybean production estimates also are further reduced this month, reflecting the damaging effects of this year’s drought. Other changes include higher peanut and sunflowerseed production for Burma, reduced peanut production for Argentina and China, reduced cottonseed production for Australia and India, and reduced palm kernel production for Indonesia.
Global oilseed trade for 2011/12 is projected at 106.4 million tons, down 2 million mainly reflecting reduced soybean trade. Lower soybean exports are forecast for Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Soybean imports are reduced for several countries including Vietnam, Iran, and Mexico. Global soybean ending stocks are projected at 55.5 million tons, down 1.8 million from last month, and down 13.6 million tons from last year.
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