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WASDE: U.S. Soybean Supplies Raised to 3.46 Billion

February 10, 2014
USDA soybeans in fall

OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supplies are increased 5 million bushels to 3.46 billion on higher projected imports, mainly from Canada. Soybean exports for 2013/14 are projected at 1.51 billion bushels, up 15 million from last month reflecting the record pace of shipments and sales through January. While global imports are unchanged, increased export projections for the United States, Brazil, and Paraguay are offset by a reduction for Argentina. Higher U.S. soybean meal exports are offset by reduced domestic use, leaving soybean crush unchanged at 1.7 billion bushels. Residual use is reduced 10 million bushels this month on tightening supplies driven by heavy use to date and large outstanding export sales. At 12 million bushels, projected residual use remains above the exceptionally low level of the past 2 marketing years. Projected soybean ending stocks are unchanged at 150 million bushels.

The 2013/14 season-average soybean price range is projected at $11.95 to $13.45, up 20 cents on both ends. The soybean meal price is projected at $425 to $465 per short ton, up 10 dollars on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price projection is lowered 1.5 cents at the midpoint with the range narrowed to 34.5 to 37.5 cents per pound.

Global oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at 506.0 million tons, up slightly from last month. Global soybean production is raised 0.9 million tons to a record 287.7 million. Soybean production for Brazil is projected at a record 90.0 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month on higher yields reflecting early harvest results in the center-west. Prospects for the Argentina soybean crop have diminished due to an extended period of hot, dry weather through mid-January. As a result, the crop is projected at 54.0 million tons, down 0.5 million from last month. Global sunflowerseed production is projected at 43.3 million tons, down 0.4 million due to reduced prospects for Argentina. Other changes include reduced cottonseed production for China, Pakistan, and Australia, and increased sunflowerseed and rapeseed production for Kazakhstan.

Global oilseed and product supply and use changes this month include reduced soybean crush, soybean meal, and soybean exports for Argentina, reduced soybean meal imports for the European Union, and increased soybean and soybean meal exports for Brazil and the United States. Global oilseed stocks are projected higher, mostly reflecting higher soybean stocks in Argentina.





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