WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2013/14 are raised slightly this month as small increases for Soft Red Winter wheat and Durum are mostly offset by decreases for White, Hard Red Spring and Hard Red Winter wheat. U.S. wheat exports for 2013/14 are raised 25 million bushels reflecting continued strong early season sales and an increased outlook for China imports. Despite larger expected crops in several major exporting countries, strong early season demand and higher projected world imports and consumption also boost prospects for U.S. shipments. Ending stocks are projected 25 million bushels lower. The projected range for the 2013/14 season-average farm price is lowered 10 cents per bushel at the midpoint to $6.40 to $7.60 per bushel. Despite the tighter domestic balance sheet, larger world wheat supplies and lower-than-expected prices reported to date reduce prospects for the weighted average farm price.
Global wheat supplies for 2013/14 are raised 7.5 million tons with increases in production for several of the world’s largest exporters pushing world production to a record 705.4 million tons. Production is raised 2.8 million tons for the European Union with the biggest increases for Spain, France, and Germany, and smaller increases for Romania, Bulgaria, and Hungary. Production is raised 2.5 million tons for Kazakhstan where abundant spring and summer rainfall is supporting prospects for strong yields, much as in the adjoining spring wheat areas of Russia. Ukraine production is raised 2.0 million tons based on the latest harvest results. Production is raised 0.5 million tons for Canada as favorable soil moisture and a lack of heat stress across the western Prairies support higher yield prospects. India production is raised 0.5 million tons based on the latest government assessment. Turkey production is raised 0.4 million tons for wheat reflecting a favorable growing season throughout the region.
Partly offsetting this month’s production increases are reductions in South America where crops will not be harvested until late 2013. Production is lowered 1.0 million tons for Argentina based on lower reported seedings. Brazil production is lowered 0.3 million tons reflecting the late July freeze event that appears to have damaged developing wheat in limited areas of southern Brazil.
Global wheat consumption for 2013/14 is raised 6.9 million tons with increases in wheat feeding projected for a number of countries and higher food use expected for India and Iran. Feed use is raised again this month for China with higher projected imports. Feed use is also increased for the European Union, Syria, Moldova, Kazakhstan, and Morocco. Wheat feeding is lowered for Thailand and Vietnam with lower imports projected for both countries. Imports are raised for Iran, Pakistan, Syria, and Turkey. Global wheat exports for 2013/14 are raised 4.9 million tons with increases for Kazakhstan, the European Union, Ukraine, and Canada totaling 7.0 million tons. Exports are lowered for Argentina and Brazil with reduced production prospects. India exports are also lowered as relatively high internal prices limit export opportunities. Rising world supplies reduce prices and support global consumption growth, thereby limiting the increase in projected 2013/14 global wheat ending stocks to 0.6 million tons.
Coverage, Analysis of the Aug. 12 USDA Reports
See all of the report data, coverage and analysis of the Aug. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Crop Production reports.