WHEAT: U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected lower this month. Exports are raised 25 million bushels supported by the stronger-than-expected pace of sales and shipments, particularly for competitively priced feed-quality wheat.
Projected exports of Soft Red Winter and White wheat are each raised 15 million bushels on strong demand from Mexico and South Korea. Exports are also projected higher for Hard Red Winter wheat, up 5 million bushels, based on sales and shipments to date. Projected Hard Red Spring wheat exports are lowered 10 million bushels as strong domestic premiums for spring wheat continue to limit demand.
Ending stocks for all wheat are projected 25 million bushels lower at 845 million. Based on prices reported to date and the lower expected carryout, the 2011/12 projected season-average farm price is raised 20 cents on the bottom end of the range to $7.15 to $7.45 per bushel.
Global wheat supplies for 2011/12 are projected 2.1 million tons higher with larger beginning stocks in Kazakhstan and increased production for India, Kazakhstan, and Morocco. Kazakhstan beginning stocks are raised 0.6 million tons with reduced domestic consumption for 2010/11. India production for 2011/12 is increased 0.9 million tons reflecting the latest government revisions, which increased yields for the crop that was harvested last spring. Kazakhstan production is raised 0.2 million tons based on the recent official estimate. Production for Morocco is raised 0.2 million tons also on official revisions to estimated yields in a crop that was harvested several months ago.
Global trade is raised slightly for 2011/12 with world imports increased 0.7 million tons. Small increases in imports are made for Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Chile, and Ethiopia. Export reductions for Ukraine, Canada, and India are more than offset by increases for Russia, the United States, Argentina, and Brazil. Global wheat consumption is reduced 1.0 million tons mostly reflecting a 1.6-million-ton reduction in India food use. Partly offsetting are small increases in food use for Australia, Chile, Ethiopia, and Kazakhstan.
Global wheat feeding is nearly unchanged with a 1.0-million-ton reduction for Kazakhstan offset by increases for Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, Canada, and Mexico. Global ending stocks for 2011/12 are raised 3.1 million tons to a record 213.1 million. As projected, 2011/12 global wheat stocks would be 2.4 million tons higher than the previous record in 1999/2000.
See full WASDE report.