U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected 25 million bushels higher with lower imports more than offset by a reduction in feed and residual use. Imports are projected 5 million bushels lower based on available shipment data.
Feed and residual use is projected 30 million bushels lower based on disappearance during the December-February and September-November quarters as indicated by the March 1 stocks and revisions to the December 1 stocks, both from the March 31 Grain Stocks report.
Projected feed and residual use is lowered 10 million bushels each for Hard Red Winter, Hard Red Spring, and White wheat. The all wheat export projection is unchanged, but small by-class adjustments are made to exports as well as imports. The projected season-average farm price for all wheat is unchanged at $6.75 to $6.95 per bushel.
Global 2013/14 wheat supplies are raised 0.5 million tons with higher projected beginning stocks, mostly because of reductions in European Union and Ukraine consumption for 2012/13. World production for 2013/14 is lowered 0.2 million tons with mostly offsetting changes to several countries of 0.1 million tons or less.
World wheat imports for 2013/14 are lowered 1.7 million tons mostly reflecting a 1.5-million-ton reduction for China. Smaller import reductions are made for Bangladesh, the European Union, Pakistan, and South Africa, but these are mostly offset by increases for Mexico, Nigeria, and Russia. Global exports are lowered with 0.5-million-ton reductions each for Australia, Canada, India, and Ukraine, and a 0.3-million-ton reduction for Brazil.
Most of the export reductions reflect the pace of shipments reported to date, but reductions for Australia and Canada are also related to the lower import outlook for China. For Ukraine, the latest trade data indicate a shift in export business from wheat to corn. Partly offsetting the reductions is a 1.0-million-ton increase for Kazakhstan exports with reports of larger rail shipments to Russia and strong sales to Iran and China.
Global wheat consumption for 2013/14 is lowered 2.4 million tons mostly on a 2.0-million-ton reduction in China wheat feeding. A number of smaller and mostly offsetting changes are also made in consumption for other countries. Global wheat ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected 2.9 million tons higher with the largest increases for Ukraine, the United States, the European Union, Australia, and China.
See the full WASDE report.
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