U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected 5 million bushels lower this month as downward production revisions of 11 million bushels for Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat and 4 million bushels for durum more than offset higher projected imports. Imports are raised 10 million bushels with increases for Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat and durum. Exports are unchanged, but shifts among classes result in higher projected exports of Hard Red Winter and HRS wheat and reductions for SRW and durum. The projected season-average price received by producers is narrowed 5 cents on each end of the range to $5.25 to $5.75 per bushel. Heavy early season marketings and forward sales limit upside potential for the season-average farm price.
Global wheat supplies are projected slightly higher for 2010/11 as higher world production offsets lower carryin, mostly reflecting higher 2009/10 wheat feeding in China. World production is raised 1.5 million tons for 2010/11 as increases for Argentina, Australia, EU-27, and Paraguay more than offset reductions for FSU-12 and the United States. Argentina production is raised 1.5 million tons as favorable returns and timely rains boost area and yield prospects. Australia production is raised 1.0 million tons as rising yield prospects in eastern growing areas more than offset reductions from extended dryness in Western Australia. Production is raised 0.6 million tons for EU-27 mostly based on higher reported area for Poland. Production for Russia is lowered 0.5 million tons as harvest results indicate lower-than-expected yields in Siberia. Production is also lowered 0.5 million tons each for Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan as the latest reports confirm higher-than-expected yield losses from the extended drought across the region.
World wheat trade for 2010/11 is raised this month with imports up 0.5 million tons each for China, Egypt, and South Korea, mostly reflecting higher reported shipments so far for the marketing year. Imports are also raised for Azerbaijan and the United States. Turkey’s imports and exports both are reduced 1 million tons as short supplies of FSU-12 wheat limit Turkey’s wheat imports and flour exports. Kazakhstan exports are lowered 0.5 million tons with the smaller crop. Exports are raised 1.0 million tons each for Argentina and EU-27 with larger available supplies in Argentina and the strong pace of EU-27 export licensing. Russia exports are raised 0.5 million tons as flour exports will now be allowed after December 31, 2010.
Global wheat consumption for 2010/11 is raised 2.5 million tons with much of the increase reflecting a 2.0-million-ton increase in China wheat feeding. Wheat feeding is also raised 0.5 million tons for Korea based on the pace of feed quality wheat imports. Feeding is lowered 1.0 million tons for Russia, but is offset by a 1.0-million-ton increase in food use. Global ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected 2.2 million tons lower with the largest reduction for China where stocks are lowered 3.4 million tons. Ending stocks are also lowered 1.0 million tons for Russia. Partly offsetting are higher projected ending stocks for Australia, Egypt, Argentina, and Paraguay.