World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates: Livestock, Poultry, Dairy

June 10, 2010 02:40 AM
 

(scroll down to see all related charts)

Forecast total U.S. meat production for 2010 is reduced slightly.  The production forecasts for 2010 largely reflect lower cattle slaughter and lighter cattle carcass weights in the second quarter and lower expected slaughter in the fourth quarter.  Hog slaughter is also reduced for the second and third quarters, but slightly heavier carcass weights partially offset the decline in second-quarter slaughter.  Changes in the broiler and turkey production forecasts for 2010 reflect slight revisions to the first quarter.  Total meat production for 2011 is raised fractionally.  There are no changes to the beef and pork forecasts for 2011.  The turkey production forecast for 2011 is raised slightly but broiler production is unchanged.

Changes in red meat and turkey imports and exports for 2010 reflect first-quarter trade data.  Broiler exports for 2010 are raised as sales to a number of markets have been stronger than expected.  Trade forecasts for 2011 are unchanged.

Cattle and hog price forecasts for 2010 are reduced from last month as demand has slackened.  Broiler and turkey price forecasts are raised from last month. The egg price forecast is lowered.  Price forecasts for 2011 are unchanged from last month. 

Forecast milk production for 2010 is raised slightly from last month reflecting a slower decline in cow numbers and stronger expected growth in milk per cow.  Milk production for 2011 is unchanged.  Exports for 2010 and 2011 are raised on both a fat and skim solids basis.  Product exports were higher than expected in the first quarter of 2010, and with generally tight world supplies, U.S. exports are expected to remain strong into 2011.  Import forecasts are lowered for 2010 and 2011.  Imports are reduced largely because of smaller-than-expected cheese imports in the first-quarter 2010 and expectations that imports will remain weak into 2011 due to relatively low U.S. prices and tight world supplies.

The Class III price forecast for 2010 is reduced slightly on a lower whey price forecast as international whey prices are weaker.  The Class IV price forecast for 2010 is raised on higher butter and nonfat dry milk (NDM) price forecasts. The all milk price for 2010 is forecast to average $15.75 to $16.15 per cwt.  The 2011 forecasts for Class III and IV prices and the all milk price are raised.  Improving domestic and export demand is expected to support NDM prices.  The cheese price forecast is raised as higher butter/powder values are expected to divert milk from cheese production.  Coupled with higher forecast exports and lower imports, tighter supplies are expected to support prices.  The all milk price forecast for 2011 is raised to $15.80 to $16.80 per cwt.


 




                               WASDE-483-31            June 2010
                 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/
===============================================================================
   Year  :      :      :  Red :       :      :  Total:   Red  :       :       :
   and   :      :      : meat :       :      :poultry: meat & :       :       :
quarter  : Beef : Pork :  2/  :Broiler:Turkey:    3/ : poultry:  Egg  :  Milk :
===============================================================================
         :                   Million pounds                    Mil doz  Bil lbs
    2009 :
     II  :   6602   5490  12167    8939   1420    10488   22655    1870    48.9
    III  :   6690   5700  12464    9172   1417    10725   23189    1880    46.8
     IV  :   6426   5996  12504    8827   1441    10385   22889    1924    46.3
Annual  :  25965  22999  49274   35511   5663    41673   90947    7534   189.3
         :
    2010 :
      I  :   6251   5607  11936    8732   1340    10188   22124    1867    47.3
    II*  :   6450   5215  11737    9125   1375    10625   22362    1880    49.1
   III*  :   6625   5400  12098    9400   1400    10925   23023    1900    47.1
    IV*  :   6180   5900  12157    9125   1425    10675   22832    1935    46.8
Annual  :
May Proj :  25691  22237  48229   36381   5539    42411   90640    7567   190.2
Jun Proj :  25506  22122  47928   36382   5540    42413   90341    7582   190.4
         :
    2011 :
     I*  :   5950   5600  11625    9075   1375    10565   22190    1880    47.9
Annual  :
May Proj :  25115  22705  48116   37500   5595    43595   91711    7620   193.0
Jun Proj :  25115  22705  48112   37500   5645    43645   91757    7620   193.0
===============================================================================
* Projection.
1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats.
2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken.




                     U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products 1/
===============================================================================
   Year  :            Barrows  :          :          :           :            :
   and   :  Steers  :and gilts : Broilers :  Turkeys :    Eggs   :     Milk   :
quarter :     2/   :     3/   :    4/    :     5/   :      6/   :       7/   :
===============================================================================
         : Dol./cwt   Dol./cwt   Cents/lb.  Cents/lb.  Cents/doz.   Dol./cwt
    2009 :
     II  :      84.48      42.74       81.9       75.7        89.7        11.60
    III  :      83.05      38.90       76.8       78.1        94.8        12.13
     IV  :      83.29      41.20       72.1       81.4       117.7        15.40
Annual  :      83.25      41.24       77.6       76.5       103.0        12.84
         :
    2010 :
      I  :      89.44      50.41       82.2       75.6       126.0        15.60
    II*  :      95-96      59-60      85-86      83-84       88-89  15.00-15.20
   III*  :      93-97      58-62      84-88      84-88       88-92  15.95-16.45
    IV*  :     92-100      50-54      79-85      84-92     108-116  16.55-17.35
Annual  :
May Proj :      94-98      55-57      81-85      80-84     105-110  15.65-16.15
Jun Proj :      92-96      54-57      82-85      82-85     102-106  15.75-16.15
         :
    2011 :
     I*  :     93-101      54-58      81-87      74-80     111-121  15.70-16.70
Annual  :
May Proj :     95-102      53-57      80-87      78-85     108-117  15.70-16.70
Jun Proj :     95-102      53-57      81-88      80-87     108-117  15.80-16.80
===============================================================================
*Projection.
1/ Simple average of months. 2/ 5-Area, Direct, Total all grades 3/ National
Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean. 4/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 5/ 8-16 lbs, hens
National. 6/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 7/ Prices
received by farmers for all milk.



                            &n​bsp;         WASDE-483-32        June 2010
                             &​nbsp; U.S. Meats Supply and Use
===============================================================================
                   :         Supply               :      Use
                   :-----------------------------------------------------------
                   :      :        :     :        :      :      : Disappearance
                   :      :   Pro- :     :        :      :      :--------------
                   : Beg- :   duc- :     :        :      : End- :      :  Per
     Item          :inning:   tion : Im- :  Total :  Ex- : ing  :      :capita
                   :stocks:    1/  :ports:  supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/  3/
===============================================================================
                   :                      Million pounds 4/
BEEF               :
2009              :    642    26068  2628    29337   1869    565  26904   61.2
2010 Proj.    May :    565    25793  2495    28853   2060    535  26258   59.3
               Jun :    565    25608  2508    28681   2058    535  26088   58.9
2011 Proj.    May :    535    25217  2785    28537   2000    515  26022   58.3
               Jun :    535    25217  2785    28537   2000    515  26022   58.3
                   :
PORK               :
2009              :    635    23020   834    24490   4126    525  19839   50.1
2010 Proj.    May :    525    22259   855    23639   4360    510  18769   47.0
               Jun :    525    22144   844    23513   4327    500  18686   46.8
2011 Proj.    May :    510    22726   885    24121   4550    500  19071   47.3
               Jun :    500    22726   885    24111   4550    500  19061   47.3
                   :
TOTAL RED MEAT 5/  :
2009              :   1307    49412  3633    54352   6011   1114  47227  112.7
2010 Proj.    May :   1114    48368  3533    53015   6437   1067  45511  107.6
               Jun :   1114    48067  3534    52715   6403   1057  45255  107.0
2011 Proj.    May :   1067    48255  3861    53183   6568   1037  45578  106.9
               Jun :   1057    48251  3861    53169   6568   1037  45564  106.9
                   :
BROILERS           :
2009              :    745    35131    85    35961   6835    616  28509   79.6
2010 Proj.    May :    616    35992    96    36704   5625    690  30389   84.2
               Jun :    616    35993    96    36705   5813    670  30222   83.7
2011 Proj.    May :    690    37099    96    37885   6000    660  31225   85.8
               Jun :    670    37099    96    37865   6000    660  31205   85.7
                   :
TURKEYS            :
2009              :    396     5588    13     5998    535    262   5201   16.9
2010 Proj.    May :    262     5466    12     5740    510    250   4980   16.1
               Jun :    262     5467    12     5741    514    250   4977   16.1
2011 Proj.    May :    250     5522    12     5784    530    275   4979   15.9
               Jun :    250     5571    12     5833    530    275   5028   16.1
                   :
TOTAL POULTRY  6/  :
2009              :   1144    41219   103    42466   7470    880  34116   97.9
2010 Proj.    May :    880    41949   112    42941   6235    943  35763  101.5
               Jun :    880    41951   112    42943   6427    923  35593  101.0
2011 Proj.    May :    943    43120   112    44175   6640    938  36597  103.0
               Jun :    923    43169   112    44204   6640    938  36626  103.1
                   :
RED MEAT & POULTRY :
2009              :   2451    90631  3736    96818  13481   1994  81343  210.6
2010 Proj.    May :   1994    90316  3645    95955  12672   2010  81273  209.1
               Jun :   1994    90017  3646    95657  12830   1980  80847  208.1
2011 Proj.    May :   2010    91375  3973    97358  13208   1975  82175  209.9
               Jun :   1980    91420  3973    97373  13208   1975  82190  210.0
===============================================================================
1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry,
federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations.
2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce,
Census Bureau. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified
ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton.
6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken.



                                    WASDE-483-33              June 2010
                               U.S. Egg Supply and Use
===============================================================================
                           :       :       :  2010 Projected :  2011 Projected
                           :       :       :-----------------:-----------------
         Commodity         :  2008 :  2009 :   May  :   Jun  :   May  :   Jun
===============================================================================
EGGS                       :                   Million dozen
Supply                    :
   Beginning stocks        :    11.1    17.2    18.0     18.0     18.0     18.0
   Production              :  7501.0  7534.0  7567.0   7582.0   7620.0   7620.0
   Imports                 :    14.6    11.1    12.0     12.0     12.0     12.0
     Total supply          :  7526.7  7562.3  7597.0   7612.0   7650.0   7650.0
                         ​  :
  Use                      :
   Exports                 :   206.3   242.2   235.0    237.2    237.0    237.0
   Hatching use            :   996.3   955.1   971.6    971.6    990.0    990.0
   Ending stocks           :    17.2    18.0    18.0     18.0     18.0     18.0
   Disappearance           :
     Total                 :  6306.9  6347.0  6372.4   6385.2   6405.0   6405.0
     Per capita (number)   :   248.3   247.7   246.6    247.1    245.8    245.8
===============================================================================




                               U.S. Milk Supply and Use
===============================================================================
                           :       :       :  2010 Projected :  2011 Projected
         Commodity         :       :       :-----------------:-----------------
                           :  2008 :  2009 :   May  :   Jun  :   May  :   Jun
===============================================================================
                           :                   Billion pounds
Milk                       :
Production                :   190.0   189.3   190.2    190.4    193.0    193.0
    Farm use               :     1.1     1.0     1.0      1.0      1.0      1.0
                           :
Fat Basis Supply           :
   Beg. commercial stocks  :    10.4    10.1    11.3     11.3     10.5     10.5
   Marketings              :   188.9   188.3   189.2    189.4    192.1    192.1
   Imports                 :     5.3     5.6     5.0      4.8      5.1      4.9
     Total cml. supply     :   204.6   204.0   205.6    205.5    207.6    207.5
                           :
Fat Basis Use              :
   Commercial Exports      :     8.7     4.1     4.8      5.0      4.9      5.1
   Ending commercial stks  :    10.1    11.3    10.5     10.5      9.9      9.8
   CCC net removals 1/     :     0.0     0.7     0.3      0.2      0.0      0.0
   Commercial use 2/       :   185.7   187.6   189.9    189.7    192.8    192.6
                           :
Skim-solids Basis Supply   :
   Beg. commercial stocks  :    10.0    10.9    11.3     11.3     11.0     11.0
   Marketings              :   188.9   188.3   189.2    189.4    192.1    192.1
   Imports                 :     7.0     5.5     4.7      4.4      4.8      4.8
     Total cml. supply     :   205.9   204.7   205.3    205.2    207.8    207.8
                           :
Skim-solids Basis Use      :
   Commercial Exports      :    26.6    22.5    25.3     26.0     27.0     27.1
   Ending commercial stks  :    10.9    11.3    11.0     11.0     10.6     10.6
   CCC net removals 1/     :     1.3     2.9     0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0
   Commercial use 2/       :   167.1   168.6   169.2    168.4    170.3    170.2
                           :
                         &nbs​p; :                   Million pounds
CCC product net removals 1/:
    Butter                 :       0      30      15        8        0        0
    Cheese                 :       0       2       2        2        0        0
    Nonfat dry milk        :     111     247       2        2        0        0
    Dry whole milk         :       0       0       0        0        0        0
===============================================================================
Note:  Totals may not add due to rounding.
1/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program.
2/ Domestic commercial use only. 2009 and 2010 adjusted for the Barter Program



                                WASDE-483-34              June 2010
                            U.S. Dairy Prices
===========================================================================
                      :        :       : 2010 Projected  : 2011 Projected
                      :        :       :-----------------:-----------------
      Commodity       :  2008  :  2009 :   May  :   Jun  :   May  :   Jun
===========================================================================
                      :                    Dollars per pound
                      :
Product Prices 1/     :
Cheese               :   1.8958  1.2963 1.480-   1.485-   1.505-   1.520-
                      :                    1.530    1.525    1.605    1.620
                      :
Butter               :   1.4352  1.2094 1.445-   1.475-   1.390-   1.390-
                      :                    1.525    1.545    1.520    1.520
                      :
Nonfat dry milk      :   1.2257  0.9222 1.180-   1.200-   1.210-   1.235-
                      :                    1.220    1.240    1.280    1.305
                      :
Dry whey             :   0.2500  0.2584 0.365-   0.365-   0.375-   0.375-
                      :                    0.395    0.385    0.405    0.405
                      :
                      :                    Dollars per cwt
Milk Prices 2/        :
Class III            :    17.44   11.36 13.95-   13.95-   14.25-   14.35-
                      :                    14.45    14.35    15.25    15.35
                      :
Class IV             :    14.65   10.89 14.15-   14.45-   14.15-   14.35-
                      :                    14.75    14.95    15.25    15.45
                      :
All milk 3/          :    18.34   12.84 15.65-   15.75-   15.70-   15.80-
                      :                    16.15    16.15    16.70    16.80
                      :
===========================================================================
1/ Simple average of monthly prices calculated by AMS from NASS weekly average
dairy product prices for class price computations. 2/ Annual Class III and
Class IV prices are the simple averages of monthly minimum Federal order
milk prices paid by regulated plants for milk used in the respective classes.
All milk price is the simple average of monthly prices received by farmers for
milk at average test.  3/ Does not reflect any deductions from producers as
authorized by legislation.



                                   WASDE-483-37                    June 2010

                   Reliability of United States June Projections 1/
===============================================================================
                 :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2009/10 2/
  Commodity and  :=============================================================
      region     :  Avg. :  Avg. :    Difference    : Below final : Above final
===============================================================================
CORN             :Percent        Million bushels              Number of years
   Production    :  10.4     766     -3327    2379             16          13
   Exports       :  15.9     290      -850     588             13          16
   Domestic use  :   6.9     489     -5888    1095             18          11
   Ending stocks :  41.4     623     -2091    1460             15          14
                 :
SORGHUM          :
   Production    :  15.7      92      -228     171             13          15
   Exports       :  19.1      43      -118      97             13          16
   Domestic use  :  15.0      55      -139     100             13          16
   Ending stocks :  44.2      55      -189     191             11          18
                 :
BARLEY           :
   Production    :   9.1      31       -73     206             11          18
   Exports       :  44.2      17       -92      53             15          12
   Domestic use  :  10.4      35       -72      95             15          14
   Ending stocks :  17.3      25       -59      79             12          17
                 :
OATS             :
   Production    :  16.0      36       -77     231              7          22
   Exports       :  65.3       1        -5       8              8          10
   Domestic use  :   7.5      24       -39     160             10          19
   Ending stocks :  17.6      18       -59      77              9          18
                 :
                 :           Thousand short tons
SOYBEAN MEAL     :
   Production    :   4.7    1475     -3721    4919             18          11
   Exports       :  16.4    1082     -2650    1964             17          12
   Domestic use  :   3.9     957     -1800    4650             14          15
   Ending stocks :  27.4      66      -204     488             12          14
                 :
                 :              Million pounds
SOYBEAN OIL      :
   Production    :   4.7     714     -1923    2330             19          10
   Exports       :  26.4     459     -1700     914             15          14
   Domestic use  :   3.3     469      -985    2100             17          11
   Ending stocks :  30.8     480     -1432    1288             16          12
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 :
ANIMAL PROD. 3/  :              Million pounds
   Beef          :   1.5     374      -569     819             18          10
   Pork          :   1.6     279      -579     676             18          10
   Broilers      :   1.0     238      -687     596             18          10
   Turkeys       :   1.4      63      -210     126             17          11
                 :
                 :              Million dozen
   Eggs          :   0.8      48       -83     125             20           8
                 :
                 :              Billion pounds
   Milk          :   0.7     1.1      -3.6     3.9             15          11
===============================================================================
1/ See pages 35 and 36 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice,
soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2008/09 is defined as the
first November estimate following the marketing year, and for 2009/10 last
month's estimate.  3/ Calendar years 1982 thru 2009 for meats, eggs, and milk.
Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate
published by NASS.
   

 

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5/17/2010 11:13 AM
 

  Great article!

 
 
Anonymous
5/17/2010 11:13 AM
 

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5/17/2010 11:13 AM
 

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