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World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates: Livestock, Poultry, Dairy

June 10, 2010

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Forecast total U.S. meat production for 2010 is reduced slightly.  The production forecasts for 2010 largely reflect lower cattle slaughter and lighter cattle carcass weights in the second quarter and lower expected slaughter in the fourth quarter.  Hog slaughter is also reduced for the second and third quarters, but slightly heavier carcass weights partially offset the decline in second-quarter slaughter.  Changes in the broiler and turkey production forecasts for 2010 reflect slight revisions to the first quarter.  Total meat production for 2011 is raised fractionally.  There are no changes to the beef and pork forecasts for 2011.  The turkey production forecast for 2011 is raised slightly but broiler production is unchanged.

Changes in red meat and turkey imports and exports for 2010 reflect first-quarter trade data.  Broiler exports for 2010 are raised as sales to a number of markets have been stronger than expected.  Trade forecasts for 2011 are unchanged.

Cattle and hog price forecasts for 2010 are reduced from last month as demand has slackened.  Broiler and turkey price forecasts are raised from last month. The egg price forecast is lowered.  Price forecasts for 2011 are unchanged from last month. 

Forecast milk production for 2010 is raised slightly from last month reflecting a slower decline in cow numbers and stronger expected growth in milk per cow.  Milk production for 2011 is unchanged.  Exports for 2010 and 2011 are raised on both a fat and skim solids basis.  Product exports were higher than expected in the first quarter of 2010, and with generally tight world supplies, U.S. exports are expected to remain strong into 2011.  Import forecasts are lowered for 2010 and 2011.  Imports are reduced largely because of smaller-than-expected cheese imports in the first-quarter 2010 and expectations that imports will remain weak into 2011 due to relatively low U.S. prices and tight world supplies.

The Class III price forecast for 2010 is reduced slightly on a lower whey price forecast as international whey prices are weaker.  The Class IV price forecast for 2010 is raised on higher butter and nonfat dry milk (NDM) price forecasts. The all milk price for 2010 is forecast to average $15.75 to $16.15 per cwt.  The 2011 forecasts for Class III and IV prices and the all milk price are raised.  Improving domestic and export demand is expected to support NDM prices.  The cheese price forecast is raised as higher butter/powder values are expected to divert milk from cheese production.  Coupled with higher forecast exports and lower imports, tighter supplies are expected to support prices.  The all milk price forecast for 2011 is raised to $15.80 to $16.80 per cwt.


                               WASDE-483-31            June 2010

                 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/


   Year  :      :      :  Red :       :      :  Total:   Red  :       :       :

   and   :      :      : meat :       :      :poultry: meat & :       :       :

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RELATED TOPICS: Beef, Dairy, Poultry

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