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Advantage Grain

RSS By: Joe Vaclavik

Located at the Chicago Board of Trade, Advantage Grain is a specialized division of MF Global focusing exclusively on the grain and livestock markets. Read their latest market commentary.

USDA Report Highlights

Jan 12, 2011





·         Yield pegged at 152.8 vs 154.3 in Dec

·         Carryout at 745mil/bu vs 832 in Dec; Avg trade guess near 780mil/bu

·         Ethanol usage raised by 100mil/bu, Feed usage lower by 100mil/bu

·         Stocks at 10.04bil/bu (10.05 avg trade guess)

·         China corn crop unch at 168mmt

·         Argentina corn crop lowered to 23.5mmt from 25mmt in Dec

·         World Corn Carryout at 127mmt vs 130mmt in Dec

·         Bullish numbers overall;  Early opening calls +10-15




·         Yield lowered from 43.9/Dec to 43.5bpa

·         Carryout at 140mil/bu vs 165/Dec;  Avg trade guess near 156mil/bu

·         Imports up 5mil/bu, Crushings down 10mil/bu, Residual down 7mil/bu

·         Stock at 2.277bil/bu (2.345 avg trade guess)

·         China crop unch at 14.4mmt

·         Brazil crop unch at 67.5mmt

·         Argentina crop lowered to 50.5mmt from 52mmt in Dec

·         World Carryout at 58.3mmt vs 60.1mmt in Dec

·         Bullish numbers, Early opening calls +15-20




·         Stocks at 1.928bil/bu vs 2.45/Sept 1 (avg trade guess 1.938)

·         Feed usage down 10mil/bu

·         Exports up 50mil/bu

·         Carryout at 818mil/bu vs 858/Dec

·         World Wheat crop at 645.8mmt vs 646.6mmt in Dec

·         Opening calls 10-15 higher



Grains should open strong today.  Shrinking stocks and carryout levels along with lowered yield numbers for corn and soybeans should provide strength today.  Despite the bullish numbers today, we still haven’t seen the USDA’s take on a nearly impossible 2011 acreage situation.  Call the office with questions at (877) 310-5643.

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