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Agriculture's Big Picture


AgWeb Editor Greg Vincent takes a big-picture look at agriculture and current events.

Prediction: Record Soybean Acres

Mar 13, 2009
A recent Top Producer survey shows that many of you plan to plant more soybean acres than you have for several years. Fertilizer, it seems, is the limiting factor for corn and wheat acres.

Jerry Gulke told me last month that it’s getting to be a question of what may lose the least amount of money as fertilizer remains high and commodity prices are low relative to last year. Soybeans are the winner with this scenario and it looks like that’s what you’re telling the trade.
Allendale, a commodity research and brokerage firm in McHenry, Ill., released its annual acreage predictions this morning. They’re calling for record soybean acreage this year with nearly a 5% jump in acres from last year.
Corn, they say, will take a slight drop in acreage…about 0.5%, but wheat acres are taking a major hit. Informa is predicting about a million more soybean acres than Allendale.

Here’s what Allendale’s predictions are:
(mil. acres)
Chg vs. 08
Corn 85.406 - 0.576
Soybeans 80.439   + 4.721
Total Wheat 57.977  - 5.170
Winter Wheat  42.147   - 4.134
Durum Wheat   2.597 - 0.134
Other Spring Wheat     13.233  - 0.902

So, what do you think? Is this too low for corn and too high for soybeans? Or not enough of a swing on either?
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COMMENTS (4 Comments)

7:26 PM Mar 16th
Greg Vincent
Anonymous: that's a very good point. Several people I've talked to, including Rich Nelson from Allendale, have said this is how it looks now. Who knows what the final numbers will look like. USDA's March 31 numbers have been way off the final June estimates. And remember last year the June numbers were even wrong because of the Midwest flooding. It's going to be a moving target.
3:56 PM Mar 13th
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