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MGEX Research

RSS By: Joe Victor, AgWeb.com

Joe Victor is a Business Development Specialist with Minneapolis Grain Exchange, Inc., where he monitors cash grain activity and cash grain opportunities. He provides marketing advice through this blog.

Acreage Adjustment, 2009

Jun 18, 2009
Since the year 2000, there has only been two of seven years when the June “Planted Acreage” report has found fewer acres planted than the March “Prospective Plantings” report has estimated. The two years observed were 2001 and 2002. From the March to June reports, in 2001, corn acres planted were down 584,000 while in 2002, acres slipped by 100,000. As the corn industry prepares for the June 2009 Planted Acres report the trade is bantering about corn acres to be reduced by 1-3 million. Those in the million acre camp are suggesting fewer acres planted in Illinois, Indiana as well as Missouri making up the lions share of reduced corn plantings and offset to a degree by increased acres planted in the states of Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota where near ideal soil conditions and reduction in fertilizer prices were the two main incentives.  Those in the 3 million camp suggest delayed plantings combined with unattractive nitrogen prices and unapproachable saturated soils, leading to prevented planted insurance claims as the main reasons for such an adjustment. Allendale needs to point out, dating back to 2000, the single largest March to June corn acreage adjustment was 2.434 million more in June of 2007.
This much is known, via the last corn planting progress report issued by the National Agriculture Statistics Service, of the main 18 corn belt states of the 78.12 million acres intended to be planted, 97% of the acres were reported to have been complete. Those states with the notable 5% or greater of prospective acres not planted as of June 8 are Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, and Pennsylvania while six states managed to have 100% of its acres planted. As you are able to discern from the immediate demographics (view chart), of mainly east corn belt states behind a normal pace of planting, this could ultimately have an impact on traditional new crop corn futures, basis and impact regional grain companies as they may have to bid up for supplies.
Allendale Inc research forewarns as a result of its own “planting pace” and “futures price” relationship between corn and soybeans research, (request Allendale acreage study graphics) it is not in the 1-3 million acreage reduction camp as it is scheduled to release its official estimate on June 18th along with its quarterly stocks estimate.
With regards to a soybean acreage adjustment, even though the masses may automatically assume any reduction in corn acres will find its way to increased soybean acres, but may want to consider the following. In 2001 when corn acres adjusted downward by 584,000, soybean acres decreased by 1.3 million acres and in 2002, while corn acres fell by 100,000 from the March to June reports, soybean acres were left unchanged. As of June 14, severe plantings delays are apparent in IL, IN, MO, AR, TN and KY which may limit initial March “Prospective Plantings”.
What are your thoughts on potential acreage for corn and soybeans for 2009?..........Joe Victor
 
 
 
Allendale Inc welcomes any questions you may have by calling 800-551-4626 or
e-mail    research@allendale-inc.com
 
The thoughts expressed and the basic data from which they are drawn are believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Simulated results do not represent actual trading. Simulated trading programs are subject to the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Commodity trading may not be suitable for recipients of this publication. This is not a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any commodities. Those acting on this information are responsible for their own actions. Any republication, or other use of this information and thoughts expressed herein without the written permission of Allendale, Inc., is strictly prohibited. Allendale Inc. c2009
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COMMENTS (3 Comments)

Anonymous
You had better hope people were planting corn. We need it. How many acres were planted so late that fall weather will affect them? 10 million? I think 70% good to excellent rating on corn is a farce. The way that is qualified it could easily be off by 10-15%.
4:51 PM Jun 18th
 
Anonymous
You failed to mention that about one half of those acres in IL,IN,MO were planted 30 days after the optimum planting dates for their respective states. I would rather be planting beans in June than corn!!
3:00 PM Jun 18th
 
 
 
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