China and India
May 13, 2010
Allendale research data estimates annual per capita vegoil (cotton, coconut, olive, palm, palm kernel, peanut, rapeseed, sunflower and soybean oil) consumption for China of 47.53 pounds for 20010/11 and most definitely trend building from levels of 36.6 pounds in 2005/06 suggesting annual rate of growth of 1.82%. Of equal importance is the flavor of choice by Chinese consumers to overwhelmingly prefer soybean oil over palm oil by 59% for 20010/11 vs 53% in 2005/06 based on annual consumption data. Soybean oil consumption is the largest within China and holds a 2.08:1 ratio edge over rapeseed oil and 1.59:1 edge over palm oil suggesting the divergence between soyoil consumption and the lesser two continues to widen. China’s vegoil consumption is most definitely encouraging to soybean exporting countries as China’s annual soybean consumption is 4.18 times greater than production for 2010/11 vs 2.72 in 2005/06 while wheat, rice and corn production is marginally higher than consumption.
The second most populated country, India with its 1.186 billion populous has a steady trend increase in its vegoil per capita consumption since 2006/07 and most definitely is making a major move for the 20010/11 marketing year with its record 31.78 pounds per person vs the previous year of 30.67 pounds per person. It is interesting to note the growth rate from 2007/08 to 2008/09 was a large 12%. Allendale Inc suggest although India’s per capita consumption is 33% less than China, it appears as though India is making a notable dietary move towards vegoils. We need to point out only India’s corn and wheat production is typically larger than consumption on a year by year basis and for most other key starch and vegoil crops remain very close between production and consumption.
If China as well as India is to continue its westernization especially in the food diet arena and ultimately attempt to achieve the per capita consumption rate of vegoils which the United States enjoys, they both have their work cut out for them as detailed within the graphic. Projected per capita vegoil consumption for the United States is 82.47 pounds, vs China’s 47.53 pounds and India’s 31.78 pounds. However total consumption of vegoils within China are 64 billion pounds with India at 37.7 billion pounds and the US at 25.6 billion pounds. The annual total vegoil consumption growth rate for China since 2005/06 to estimated 2010/11 is 22.5%, India at 23.5% and the US at 17.3%. The bottom-line is the US should be very encouraged by the per capita growth trends of vegoil consumption within China and India.
Be reminded of two facts, typically from the March to June acreage report we lose .9% of the soybean acres planted and point #2 is how 72% of the time the May WASDE end stocks for soybeans are higher than USDA’s final estimate.
What are your thoughts, is the USDA low in its 2010/11 China soybean imports of 49 million metric tonnes vs 46 MMT in 2009/10? Why is China in stock building mode for soybeans overtaking the US one year ago?
We welcome your questions.........Joe Victor
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