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MGEX Research

RSS By: Joe Victor, AgWeb.com

Joe Victor is a Business Development Specialist with Minneapolis Grain Exchange, Inc., where he monitors cash grain activity and cash grain opportunities. He provides marketing advice through this blog.

Corn Acres and Quarterly Stocks: Not Out of the Woods Yet

Jul 01, 2009
With the June 30th USDA Planted Acres and Quarterly Grain Stocks released, Allendale’s research suggests USDA’s forthcoming World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates are likely forced to produce revisions to projected 2009/10 end stocks.
By viewing the chart, you will observe three distinct columns on the righthand side. In the first 2009/10 column, you will see the days supply of corn and wheat as a result of the USDA June WASDE, which suggests decade record low number of days supply of corn at 32, two days less than the previous record low of 2001/02. The second of the three columns has revised the number of days supply to 36 as USDA’s June planted acres reported 87.035 million acres vs. its present WASDE estimate of 85 million, creating a growing supply of corn while leaving yield per acre unchanged at 153.4 bu. per acre. The third and final column includes the upward acre revision as well as  USDA’s June 30th quarterly corn stocks report estimate of 4.266 billion bushels.
Knowing the most recent three-year average 4th corn use as well as lag in 2008/09 corn use, Allendale Inc suggests USDA has a discrepancy of 323 million bushels from its present old crop end stocks of 1.6 billion bushels and likely to cause a larger 2009/10 carry-in stocks estimate. Allendale’s research suggests by adding in the potentially larger carry-in stocks and increased planted acres, the days supply of corn may reach 46. Though building a degree of comfort for end users as well as grain handlers, corn is not out of the woods just yet, as the 10-year average days of corn supply is 54 and there is evidence of a downward trending bias since 2004/05’s 72-day supply.
With reference to corn’s starch cousin wheat, the trend bias is notably upward since 2003/04’s level of a relatively tight situation of 85 days. USDA launched another acreage surprise on June 30th with regard to wheat by discovering an additional 1.175 million acres vs. its June WASDE estimate of 58.6 million acres. Before the June 30th USDA acres and quarterly stocks reports, the days supply of wheat numbered 110. By adding the additional acres, the 2009/10 days supply of wheat has reached a level of 120 days, and by adding in the quarterly stocks data suggest the outlook for 121 days.
Allendale Inc.’s most immediate response to this time-sensitive data is the wheat supply may in fact be the darkest starch cloud for producers, which may produce a gray cloud over corn’s ability to stage a significant weather rally for 2009. Allendale’s research does advise we have likely experienced the 2009 December futures high in the month of May with the potential to reach $4.40 to $4.60 and a $3.40 to $3.50 low before the fall harvest. Allendale encourages you to utilize the fundamental and projected price range data with an Allendale representative to formulate your specific marketing plan.
Speculative investment traders may want to explore the potential of a long Sept futures corn vs. short Sept wheat futures position as technical chart data suggest the spread remains confined within a 20-cent trade range.
What are your thoughts about the most recent USDA reports? Does USDA have the right acreage and stocks estimates? Could USDA begin to make immediate abrupt acreage and stocks adjustments in the July WASDE, or wait until the January Annual WASDE? The trade may suggest there is plenty of the growing season ahead and El Nino could cause crop stress. Ask yourself this: What if there is not a major weather issue -- are you prepared?..........Joe Victor
 
Allendale Inc. welcomes any questions you may have by calling 800-551-4626 or
 
 
The thoughts expressed and the basic data from which they are drawn are believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Simulated results do not represent actual trading. Simulated trading programs are subject to the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Commodity trading may not be suitable for recipients of this publication. This is not a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any commodities. Those acting on this information are responsible for their own actions. Any republication, or other use of this information and thoughts expressed herein without the written permission of Allendale, Inc., is strictly prohibited. Allendale Inc. c2009
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COMMENTS (8 Comments)

Indiana Farmer
Problem is the information is 30 days out of date when we see it. The eastern corn belt is 30-40 days behind when it was planted. Corn looks good from the road, but it is still 30 days late. Cool weather now(56 at night and 68 during the day)does not translate into heat units. Several wheat fields were burnt down about the end of May and planted in soybeans. North Dakota was still then harvesting corn from 2008 and may not plant all of their acres. USDA's report reflects none of these facts. The final certified acres are due on 15 July, so all=in-all these numbers are highly speculative at best. Even the odds makers at the race track will say its bad information. Good Luck to all, drive safe and enjoy the 4th!!!
1:18 PM Jul 2nd
 
Anonymous
Nice to see so many voice their opinions. This is definitely an end user market for corn. If I were and end user or cattle producer I think these prices are fair. If you think we had a krazy report this time wait until they get their official certified report.
8:43 AM Jul 2nd
 
 
 
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