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MGEX Research

RSS By: Joe Victor, AgWeb.com

Joe Victor is a Business Development Specialist with Minneapolis Grain Exchange, Inc., where he monitors cash grain activity and cash grain opportunities. He provides marketing advice through this blog.

Soybean Crush and Exports

Feb 04, 2010
                    Allendale Inc will begin with the US soybean crush and finish with exports. These two main users of annual soybean production account for 92.3% of annual production. The soybean crush into soybean meal and soybean oil account for 50.9%. As you are able to view via this chart,  soybean crush for the 2009/10 market year is running very strong. At Allendale Inc, we analyze the “US Census Bureau” as well as “The National Oilseed Processors Association” and the crusher margin. We need to make note that NOPA as a members association runs about 6 million bushels per month lighter than the US Census Bureau. As we continue to explain to the major wire services, it may produce good news to write about China switching US purchased soybeans to South America (4 million bushels), but make sure you include the need for USDA to increase its US soybean crush target by 53 million bushels in response to the 2009/10 soybean crush target of 1.71 billion bushels.
Allendale Inc does include and makes available to its subscribers the “Soybean Gross Crush Margin,” which has been very profitable dating back to mid 2009. This profitability to crush soybeans into meal and oil remains strong but we do need to consider Brazil, Argentina and surrounding countries. Of course you do know ADM and Bunge as well as others are crushing oilseeds outside of the US.
Allendale Inc is not surprised when it comes to soybean exports. The best news is how we have filled the needs of our largest customer (China). Take a look at another chart we update weekly for our customers, the weekly “Soybean Export Sales.” Allendale Inc fully anticipates its No. 1 export customer, China, will transition to South America as new supplies become available. Allendale Inc fully understands how this 40.9% demand remains strong for the first and second quarter and notably trails off the balance of the year. The question remains, how does this export action, crush and South America impact your bottom line?
Allendale Inc will cover the fundamental, technical and strategies you can choose from in a meeting near you. It is time for you to pick up the phone and register for a meeting.
 
We welcome your questions and comments.........Joe Victor
 
Allendale Inc welcomes any questions you may have by calling 800-551-4626 or
 
 
 
The thoughts expressed and the basic data from which they are drawn are believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Simulated results do not represent actual trading. Simulated trading programs are subject to the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Commodity trading may not be suitable for recipients of this publication. This is not a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any commodities. Those acting on this information are responsible for their own actions. Any republication, or other use of this information and thoughts expressed herein without the written permission of Allendale, Inc., is strictly prohibited. Allendale Inc. c2010
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COMMENTS (2 Comments)

Anonymous
Beans are bearish- S. America is the reason why. Corn is at best going to trade sideways for a little while yet.
8:00 AM Feb 8th
 
Anonymous
As far as Im concerned beans still should be considered bullish with the exports. Wheat is somehwat bullish with the additional acres not seeded to wheat. Corn is perhaps a little bulllish with no real true forecast of yield and crop in field. Also spring weather isnt looking like a spring we need to get crop in early. Markets usually paint the picture though and it is usually looking into future on the bearish side, usually bullish future doesnt pull prices as high as bearish can bring down prices. JUst an opinion.
8:37 AM Feb 5th
 
 
 
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