Joe Victor is a Business Development Specialist with Minneapolis Grain Exchange, Inc., where he monitors cash grain activity and cash grain opportunities. He provides marketing advice through this blog.
Soybean Maturity & Condition Influence on Yield:
Jul 30, 2009
There is plenty of present discussion with regards to potential forthcoming acreage adjustments for corn and sorghum and Allendale Inc addressed the potential impact on 2009-10 corn end stocks in last week’s special report release. Allendale Inc would like to switch gears or in this case, switch fields. There is a need to look into present day soybean maturity and good to excellent conditions and the potential impact on yield as the 2009 crop moves forward.
As of July 26th, 2009, the nation’s soybean crop maturity registers 63% bloom vs a five year average of 76%. Allendale Inc discovered three years, one recent in 2008 with 60% bloom and two distant years of 1995 and 1996 when the crop was lagging in maturity, very similar to 2009. Taking into consideration genetic developments more closely associated with 2008, we were interested to see how yield responded by month from the starting point of July into the January annual report.
The attached graph does detail the month by month yield decline in 2008 from July’s 41.6 bushels per acre into the month of November with 39.3 bushels per acre and a January annual estimate of 39.6 bpa for a total decline of 4.8% with 1995 exhibiting a 3.1% decline. 1995 had the similar month by month trend down with the exception of 1996 when the January annual yield report finishing 2.4% higher than the July yield estimate.
By using the resulting decline in 2008, final yield could result in 2009 yield per acre of 40.55 and end stocks of 118 million bushels vs Allendale’s present outlook of 275 mil bu and USDA’s 250 million bushels. Using the 1995 decline of 3.1%, US end stocks would project to 174 million bushels and by using the 2.4% increase in 1996, end stocks would be 353 million bushels.
What about present 67% good to excellent crop conditions, are they enough to offset the late maturity impact on yield? Allendale Inc was able to identify two years when the good to excellent conditions were very near the same conditions for the last Monday of July. The two years identified are 2000 and 2003. Both years saw month yields drop from July to November with only the Jan 2000 yield 1/10th of a bushel higher than Nov. The July to Jan 2000 yield loss was 4.8% while 2003 experienced a whopping 15.9% yield loss. IF similar yield losses were to impact the 2009 projected yield of 42.6 bpa, the 2000 model would imply 119 mil bu end stocks and the 2003 model result in stocks well under 100 million bushels. We must include in 2003 the G-E soybean conditions dropped 27% vs July and 2000 dropped 12%. What are the chances 2009 G-E conditions drop by a similar amount as 2003?
What are your thoughts regarding these scenarios? Is the 2009 soybean yield of 42.6 bpa out of the woods? Are the 2009 soybean yields more likely to follow 1996 or 1995,2000,2003 and 2008? The most important question is do you have a marketing plan in place for such scenarios? We welcome your questions.........Joe Victor
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