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MGEX Research

RSS By: Joe Victor, AgWeb.com

Joe Victor is a Business Development Specialist with Minneapolis Grain Exchange, Inc., where he monitors cash grain activity and cash grain opportunities. He provides marketing advice through this blog.

You be the Judge

Dec 28, 2009
USDA has released its last corn harvest progress report for 2009 and suggest 95% of 18 states which harvested 94% of last years corn production is complete. Within the National Agriculture Statistic Service’s report are a few surprises, one of which is how the harvest progress report for 2009 exceeded the average last release date of 5 weeks ago. That is correct, normally when the nation has reached a five year average of 89% five weeks ago, this year the harvest was only 54% complete.
            This year the U.S. is expected to produce 12.921 billion bushels of corn which remains only second in size to the 2007 record size of 13.038 billion bushels. With 95% of the corn production harvested, this suggests there remains 621.6 million bushels left in the field as of the last NASS report. Only in 1985 and 1992 did NASS release late reports which suggested the harvest was 91% complete in 1985 and 88% in 1992 when for the same week in 2009 corn harvest was 92% complete.
            Who has the most corn remaining in the 2009 field may come as a surprise in the form of 110.9 million bushels in Nebraska and then Illinois at 103.2 million bushels. These are the only two U.S. states with over 100 million bushels remaining to be harvested. Other significant others which bear noting are Minnesota at 85.5 million bushel, South Dakota at 82.8 million bushel and North Dakota at 67.8 million bushels. Interesting to note of the five major players which have significant amounts of corn remaining in the field four of them are in the west/northwest cornbelt. You may anticipate the corn basis to remain stronger than usual and into spring for these four western states as there remains an abundance of unharvested 2009 corn.
            2009’s corn harvest remains delayed and yet it is very important to remember as we prepare to enter the beginning stages of 2010 this is not a market which is demand driven such as soybeans but corn is a market which is supply restricted. Of the nearly 622 million not harvested, approximately 10% or 60 million bushels are expected to be lost as a result of field loss. The only true demand driver for corn is the ethanol market as profit margins remain positive. Allendale Inc believes USDA is overstating feed and export demand.
            U.S. corn producers and end users make note March corn futures prices remain in a range of 3800 to 4200, July corn futures 4000 to 4400 and in full carry mode of 19 cents.
            You be the Judge, are you anticipating higher prices to sell into and because driven by demand or supply restriction? Why are futures offering full carry and do you believe exports and feed use will be as strong as USDA believes? Do you have your marketing plans firmly in place?
 
We welcome your questions and comments.........Joe Victor
 
Allendale Inc welcomes any questions you may have by calling 800-551-4626 or
 
 
 
 
The thoughts expressed and the basic data from which they are drawn are believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Simulated results do not represent actual trading. Simulated trading programs are subject to the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Commodity trading may not be suitable for recipients of this publication. This is not a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any commodities. Those acting on this information are responsible for their own actions. Any republication, or other use of this information and thoughts expressed herein without the written permission of Allendale, Inc., is strictly prohibited. Allendale Inc. c2009
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COMMENTS (3 Comments)

Anonymous
Nowhere in my state are farmers bragging about bumper corn or soy yields. I dont understand where we think were getting bumper yields with all low test weights, loads rejected for mold, corn left in field, etc..... Who is the market trying to fool. Delta soybean damage extensive enough to take top end off yields nationally alone. Ive never raised 50 pound corn and recorded record yields, but theres those out there that claim they did. I think the corn supply by spring will be similiar to the soybean supply this year before new crop comes in.
11:52 AM Dec 31st
 
Anonymous
I left 50% of my corn in the field. It wa still 35% moisture in late Nov. Yhe only corn I combined was 80 day or less maturity. Next year I'll plant all 80 day or less corn. A little dry corn is better than a large pile of wet corn.
Ottertail county MN
11:26 PM Dec 29th
 
 
 
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