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Cash Grain Insights

RSS By: Kevin McNew, AgWeb.com

Kevin McNew is President of Grain Hedge and Geograin. McNew was raised on a farm in central Oklahoma and received his bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University, and master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. For over a decade, he was a Professor of Economics at the University of Maryland and Montana State University, focusing on commodity markets. He has received numerous academic awards for his research and outreach work, and was (and still is) widely regarded for boiling down complex economic issues into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life.

 

Corn Drops to 3-Week Low on Poor Fundamentals

Dec 10, 2012

Click Play to Hear the Morning Grain Call

Corn continued to sink lower in the overnight session hitting a 3-week low at $7.32 on March futures. Wheat also was down 4 cents in the night session while soybeans were up 1 cent.

Weak export demand and expectations of higher ending stocks in USDA’s Supply and Demand Report Tuesday morning has corn suffering a 2-cent loss in the last three trading sessions.

Over the weekend, South Korea, the 4th biggest U.S. corn market, announced a tender to buy corn but excluded US origin based on high prices.  Analysts’ average expectation is for USDA’s report on Tuesday to show a 25 mb increase in ending stocks than was last forecast in November of 647 mb. Grain Hedge analysts are expecting a higher stock estimate of 100 mb on the basis of dismal exports and subpar ethanol production so far this marketing year.

In wheat, there were some limited sales of US origin wheat over the weekend to Saudi Arabia  and South Korea, but in an Iraqi tender Australia and Romania garnered that business. News from Argentina indicates they will likely see 25% lower wheat exports this year as flooding has cut their production and crop quality.

Soybean prices met selling pressure at the end of last week at key resistance of $14.96 Weather in Brazil shows a favorable outlook for beneficial moisture in the next 5 days , while rain-soaked Argentina is expected to see showers and thunderstorms early in the week delaying planting, but drier weather returns for the remainder of the week.  USDA’s Supply and Demand report on Tuesday should show a sizable drop in US ending stocks with exceptionally strong export demand in the first part of the marketing year.  

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