Jul 31, 2014
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Cash Grain Insights

RSS By: Kevin McNew, AgWeb.com

Kevin McNew is President of Grain Hedge and Geograin. McNew was raised on a farm in central Oklahoma and received his bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University, and master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. For over a decade, he was a Professor of Economics at the University of Maryland and Montana State University, focusing on commodity markets. He has received numerous academic awards for his research and outreach work, and was (and still is) widely regarded for boiling down complex economic issues into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life.

 

Corn Exports Crush Expectations

Mar 27, 2014

 Grain markets were mixed overnight with beans higher by 8 cents, wheat lower by 3 cents and corn unchanged in the night trade.

Wheat prices have been selling off of late on what traders say is a better chance of rain in the Plains. However, the rain is mostly limited and of little size. In Amarillo, TX 0.04 of an inch fell yesterday. Areas of Oklahoma and Texas have slim chances of rain in the next few days. Egypt’s GASC is rumored to be tendering for wheat early next week especially if the USDA reports on Monday are bearish. Overnight, Egypt’s minister announced the country will cut wheat imports by 1 to 1.5 MMT in the next fiscal year by reforming a subsidized bread policy it sees as inefficient.

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In corn, USDA’s attache in Brazil pegged the corn crop there at 72 MMT, higher than the official USDA forecast of 70 MMT. Weekly corn export sales for old-crop were a well above expectations at 1,408,300 MT, with traders only expecting 525,000 to 725,000. Outstanding sales, which is the amount of grain committed to but not shipped, is a record high 18 MMT. Going back to 1990 when USDA started collecting the data, the previous high was 16 MMT in 1996.

For beans, net sales of old-crop delivery were negligible this week with only 11,900 MT. Traders had been expecting 100,000 to 250,000 MT. But, even so, the total commitments are still well above USDA’s annual forecast for the year.

WEEKLY EXPORT SALES (in thousand metric tons)

 

OC Actual

OC Expected

NC Actual

NC Expected

Corn

1,408

525-725

28.4

0-200

Soybeans

11.9

100-250

534.9

300-500

Wheat

400.5

325-475

327.5

50-250

 

   

 

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