Sep 19, 2014
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Cash Grain Insights

RSS By: Kevin McNew, AgWeb.com

Kevin McNew is President of Grain Hedge and Geograin. McNew was raised on a farm in central Oklahoma and received his bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University, and master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. For over a decade, he was a Professor of Economics at the University of Maryland and Montana State University, focusing on commodity markets. He has received numerous academic awards for his research and outreach work, and was (and still is) widely regarded for boiling down complex economic issues into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life.

 

Corn exports crush expectations

Jan 30, 2014

 Soybeans sold off further losing 4 cents in the overnight session following Wednesday’s sharp decline. Wheat managed to come back 4 cents and corn was up 2 cents.

For beans, harvest continues to be in the early phases in Brazil, but the first vessel of new-crop Brazilian beans was loaded yesterday at the Port of Paranagua. Average yield reported by a private firm for farmers in Mato Grosso was 47.3 bushel per acre. The weather in Mato Grosso is favorable for harvesting and farmers are working up to 20 hours a day to get the beans out of the fields. On the export front, China was rumored to have canceled 300,000 to 400,000 MT of US beans, which also is pressuring the bean market.

Blog 650x200 B

In wheat, the market was off sharply on Wednesday following some penetration of key support on the technical charts. However, fundamentally, the US wheat market has not seen much in the way of big sales after big deals by Saudi Arabia and Egypt went mostly to foreign interests. Winter kill continues to be an issue in the US, with frigid temps expected to persist over the next week. But, it will be difficult to maintain that concern in the market in the face of large global supplies. Overnight, Jordan tendered for 100,000 MT of milling wheat.

For corn, good export activity of late has helped underpin the corn market. Along with regular buyers like Japan and Mexico, non-traditional buyers of Egypt and Spain have also bought significant quantities of US corn.  Corn export premiums at the Gulf were steady to firm on strong demand, with rival exporters charging more for their corn than the US. March and April premiums are up 10 or 15 cents a bushel this week.

WEEKLY EXPORT SALES (in thousand metric tons)

 

Actual

Expected

Corn

1,943.6

550-750

Soybeans

865.8

750-1,050

Wheat

796.9

300-500

 

 

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