Jul 24, 2014
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Cash Grain Insights

RSS By: Kevin McNew, AgWeb.com

Kevin McNew is President of Grain Hedge and Geograin. McNew was raised on a farm in central Oklahoma and received his bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University, and master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. For over a decade, he was a Professor of Economics at the University of Maryland and Montana State University, focusing on commodity markets. He has received numerous academic awards for his research and outreach work, and was (and still is) widely regarded for boiling down complex economic issues into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life.

 

Crop Conditions Climb

Jul 15, 2014

 Alert: NOPA soybean crush numbers out at 11:00 AM central time

Grain futures are trading lower in Chicago this morning following yesterday’s bounce. Corn is off 3 cent, soybeans down 5 cents and Chicago wheat is down 2. Crop condition numbers released after the close have weighed on new crop futures. This morning there was a reportable sale released showing 120,000 metric tons of soybeans sold to China for the 14/15 crop year. 

The USDA reported 76% of the corn crop rated good-to-excellent, up a percent from last week. 34% of the crop is now silking which is slightly ahead of the five year average. Cooler temperatures across the grain belt during pollination will be a concern for some southern producers, but this should not be a long term bullish story. Growing degree days may be an issue as we approach harvest. Soybean conditions are still rated 72% good-to-excellent but we saw one percentage point moved from the good to the excellent category. 41% of the crop is now blooming which is four percentage points ahead of the five years average.

NOPA crush numbers will be out at 11:00 AM central time this morning. Traders expect NOPA to report 119.486 million bushels crushed during June. This would be down roughly 8 million bushels from May’s crush. Now the question is if near term demand has been met or will we find stronger crush in July following an old crop sell off following the June 30th reports. On the international demand front, Chinese officials held another state auction of soybeans on Tuesday. Buying interest in main land China is starting to fade with just 59,000 of the 352,000 metric tons offered sold. This was down from nearly 100,000 sold the week before and much larger sales earlier in the summer.

Moisture across Europe has the wheat harvest on hold and some analysts are beginning to get concerned about quality problems of this years crop. At the moment there is still time to correct the issue, but the recent rains in Germany and France has merchandisers concerned.

Yesterday export inspections were released within analyst expectations for corn and wheat, while soybeans beat the average analyst guess by reporting 115,280 metric tons inspected for export.  For soybeans, the forecast ranged between 30,000-75,000 metric tons.

 

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