Sep 18, 2014
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Cash Grain Insights

RSS By: Kevin McNew, AgWeb.com

Kevin McNew is President of Grain Hedge and Geograin. McNew was raised on a farm in central Oklahoma and received his bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University, and master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. For over a decade, he was a Professor of Economics at the University of Maryland and Montana State University, focusing on commodity markets. He has received numerous academic awards for his research and outreach work, and was (and still is) widely regarded for boiling down complex economic issues into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life.

 

New Crop Soybean Sales Beat Expectations

Aug 28, 2014

 Grains are slightly higher in the overnight session with corn up ¾ of a penny, soybeans up 3 cents and wheat up 6 ¾ cents as we move into the pause in trade. The tensions in Ukraine continue to escalate as reports out of Kiev accuse Russia of playing a major role in a counter offensive by the separatists. Concerns are that Russian boots and armored vehicles are on the ground in Ukraine, which if confirmed would be a significant escalation of the Ukrainian conflict. 

Wheat export sales were reported at 403,600 metric tons for delivery in 14/15 which was up 98 percent from the previous week. Brazil was highlighted as a major purchaser of U.S wheat buying 94,000 metric tons. Old crop corn sales had net reductions of 32,700 metric tons which was within analyst expectations. According to our model this puts corn on pace to meet the USDA expectations with only one week left in the marketing year. New crop corn sales were reported at 695,600 metric tons which was within expectations.

Old crop soybean sales recorded net reductions of 62,800 metric tons which puts soybean export sales at 35 million bushels ahead of pace to meet USDA expectations. It is likely we see the USDA revise their forecast in the September 11th WASDE report. New crop soybean sales were reported at 1,290,800 metric tons which was well above expectations. The majority of sales primarily went to China which booked 50 percent of this week’s new crop soybean sales.

Yesterday the EIA announced that ethanol production had fallen 24,000 barrels per day to 913,000 barrels per day. Ethanol stocks declined this week 934,000 barrels, bringing total stocks to 17.32 million barrels.

 

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