Oct 2, 2014
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Cash Grain Insights

RSS By: Kevin McNew, AgWeb.com

Kevin McNew is President of Grain Hedge and Geograin. McNew was raised on a farm in central Oklahoma and received his bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University, and master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. For over a decade, he was a Professor of Economics at the University of Maryland and Montana State University, focusing on commodity markets. He has received numerous academic awards for his research and outreach work, and was (and still is) widely regarded for boiling down complex economic issues into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life.


Profit Taking Eases Grains Overnight (Mar 22)

Mar 22, 2013

Grains were lower across the board overnight as traders locked in profits from sharp gains in recent trading sessions. Soybean and wheat prices were down 2 cents a bushel while corn was off 3 cents.

In wheat, South Korea rejected all offers on its tender for 55,000 MT of feed wheat overnight. In addition, India continues to push hard to move wheat in the global market announcing they were offering 160,000 MT of milling wheat to international buyers. In the US Plains, weekend weather looks to be cold with potential temperatures falling into the low 20s as far south as Oklahoma, but limited crop development at this time could help mitigate the damage.

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For corn, prices have rallied hard over the past two weeks gaining 40 cents. But, further gains will likely depend on the outcome of the March 28th reports on old-crop stocks and planting intentions for 2013/14. Beneficial moisture is expected to hit much of the Midwest this weekend with a snowstorm bringing 3 to 8 inches of snow. However, cold temperatures will likely delay early plantings and keep farmers from getting much in the ground for early April. In global markets, Argentina approved another 2 MMT in 2012-13 corn exports raising the season's full export quota to 17 MMT while Ukraine is likely to raise its grain exports by about 26 percent to 27 MMT in the July 2013-June 2014 season thanks to the expected record crop of more than 53 MMT.

In the bean market, export sales on Thursday were disappointing as both old-crop and new-crop sales came in below expectations. Even so, prices managed a sharp rally in Thursday’s session as port delays in Brazil give hope to further business hitting the US market. However, a weakening hog sector in China may start to cool Chinese demand. China may purchase about 59 MMT in the 12 months through September, compared with 63 MMT projected by USDA, according to the median of a survey of three researchers and two traders by Bloomberg News. 

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