Sep 19, 2014
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Cash Grain Insights

RSS By: Kevin McNew, AgWeb.com

Kevin McNew is President of Grain Hedge and Geograin. McNew was raised on a farm in central Oklahoma and received his bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University, and master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. For over a decade, he was a Professor of Economics at the University of Maryland and Montana State University, focusing on commodity markets. He has received numerous academic awards for his research and outreach work, and was (and still is) widely regarded for boiling down complex economic issues into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life.

 

Sept/Nov Bull Spreading

Aug 25, 2014

 This morning the grains are trading slightly lower with corn down 3 ½ cents, soybeans down 7 cents and wheat down 1 cent as we go into the morning pause in trading. The spread between the September soybean contract and the November contract has taken another giant leap higher, up 15 cents just in the overnight. The spread is now trading at 139 3/4, up from 15 cents on August 6th.

There should be more moisture this week throughout the Midwest as a storm tracks from Nebraska to the Great Lakes region from Tuesday to Friday. The storm should help the later planted corn and soybeans giving eastern Nebraska, Iowa, Southern Minnesota, and Wisconsin between ½ -1 inch of precipitation.

Heavy rains fell this weekend in Montana and the Western Dakotas which halted harvest and gave cause for concern about crop quality. In Montana, the higher elevations received snow which is still sticking on the peaks this morning. The wet growing season has caused concern about the emergence of Vomitoxin as harvest progresses. Vomitoxin has already been present in some of the early harvested crop.

France was able to wrap up wheat harvest over the weekend. Germany however, who has been struggling with wet weather during harvest, is still looking for a break in the forecast to cut the remaining acres.

Trading opened at 8:30 PM Sunday night, which was 1.5 hours later than expected after the CME ran into unspecified technical problems. Those problems have since been resolved.

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