Oct 2, 2014
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Cash Grain Insights

RSS By: Kevin McNew, AgWeb.com

Kevin McNew is President of Grain Hedge and Geograin. McNew was raised on a farm in central Oklahoma and received his bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University, and master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. For over a decade, he was a Professor of Economics at the University of Maryland and Montana State University, focusing on commodity markets. He has received numerous academic awards for his research and outreach work, and was (and still is) widely regarded for boiling down complex economic issues into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life.

 

Soy Exports Crush Expectations

Jan 24, 2014

 Soybeans came under selling pressure overnight with front-month March futures giving up 10 cents a bushel. Corn and wheat were down 2 in the night session.

Pressure from the upcoming South America crop continue to weigh on beans. Yesterday, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated Argentina's upcoming 2013/14 soybean harvest at 53.0 MMT, compared with 48.5 MMT last year.  Planting by Argentine farmers progressed by 2% during the week, according to the report, with 98.4% seeded as of Thursday.  Recent rains helped growers get their seeds into the ground during the week, it said. The rains were much needed after an extremely hot, dry December slowed planting and stunted development of young soy plants.  Overnight, a widespread area of thundershowers favored much of Cordoba, southern Santa Fe, southern Entre Rios, and north-central/eastern Buenos Aires with 1 to 3" totals common. This was very helpful for corn/soy and will limit additional crop stress to only 10 or 15% of the belt for now.

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For corn, news has been limited to get the markets out of their sideways trend of the past 6 weeks.  Overnight, China said they would keep rejecting U.S. corn shipments containing an unapproved genetically modified strain at least until the end of March, shrugging off pressure from Washington to swiftly approve the variety developed by crop chemicals giant Syngenta AG. Under Chinese regulations, the earliest approval of the  genetically modified MIR 162 strain could be late March, when the agriculture ministry's biosafety committee holds its annual meeting. If no decision is made, the next review would be in June. On a more positive note, exports are saying the US corn prices are now fairly competitive against rival countries. US corn prices are now at a discount to Ukraine for March on out. The regulars like Japan have been booking springtime shipments. Demand from Egypt, which normally buys from Ukraine, has also been strong, they say.  Overnight, a group of Israeli private buyers has purchased about 90,000 MT of corn which can be sourced optionally from the Black Sea region or the United States in an international tender.

In wheat, the market found support yesterday from a large Saudi tender of 600,000 MT and frigid temperatures in the Eastern Cornbelt which could put at risk some of the US SRW wheat crop. Overnight, Libya bought 30,000 MT of wheat from the Baltic Sea region.

WEEKLY EXPORT SALES (in thousand metric tons)

 

Actual

Expected

Corn

693.4

250-650

Soybeans

1,673.1

300-625

Wheat

429.4

300-600

 

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