Kevin McNew and Cody Bills
The Grain Hedge Team provides a macro-focused daily view of the world’s grain markets. Kevin McNew, President of Grain Hedge and GeoGrain, received a bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University and his master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. He spent 10 years as a Professor of Economics with the University of Maryland and Montana State University focusing on commodity markets and is widely regarded for his ability to boil-down complex economic situations into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life. Cody Bills received his Business Administration degree, concentrating on finance, from the University of Vermont. Beginning his career as an analyst for a local investment firm, Cody’s insight and understanding of the grain markets has led to national publication as well as an invitation to host Grain TV daily and be a regular guest on AgWeb Radio.
Soybeans Climb Back Overnight
Mar 24, 2014
Grains started Sunday night in the red with beans down 10 and wheat down 7, but gained ground throughout the night. Going into the close of night trade, nearby May beans are up 10 cents, wheat is up 7 and corn is up 6.
Exporters at the Gulf are seeing more competition from South America and there have been rumors over the past week of Brazilian soybeans moving into the U.S. Gulf or Wilmington, DE. Estimates have ranged from 2-3 early in the week, to as high as 12 cargoes by the end of the week. Gulf basis levels slumped on Friday even with the slide in futures prices.
In wheat, conditions are still dry through the Southern Plains. The best chance for moisture in the next 10 days seems to be Wednesday into Thursday, but after that weather looks to be dry out to the first week of April. In Canada, leaders of the union representing 3,000 conductors, yard workers, and traffic coordinators at Canadian National Railway Co narrowly rejected a second tentative contract deal with Canada's biggest railway. The Teamsters Canada Rail Conference said in a statement that it still has a valid strike mandate and added that its leaders will meet with counsel to decide on its next move. Canada continues to have sever logistics problems moving grain to export markets this season.
In the US rail costs have been skyrocketing, driving down basis levels especially in the Northern Plains. Northern shuttle trains are said to have traded as high as $7,500 a car this week, which is the equivalent of paying $2 a bushel to ship your wheat. Overnight, Taiwan's maize industry procurement association MFIG has issued a tender to purchase up to 60,000 MT of corn to be sourced from the United States, Brazil or Argentina. The tender sought shipment between May 26 to June 14, and the deadline for offers is Tuesday, Mar 25. In its previous tender for 60,000 MT of corn on Mar. 19, MFIG rejected all offers and made no purchase as prices were regarded as too high.