Jul 25, 2014
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Cash Grain Insights

RSS By: Kevin McNew, AgWeb.com

Kevin McNew is President of Grain Hedge and Geograin. McNew was raised on a farm in central Oklahoma and received his bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University, and master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. For over a decade, he was a Professor of Economics at the University of Maryland and Montana State University, focusing on commodity markets. He has received numerous academic awards for his research and outreach work, and was (and still is) widely regarded for boiling down complex economic issues into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life.

 

Traders Eyes NOPA Numbers Released at 11 CST Today

May 15, 2014

• Soybean export sales beat expectations

• Chinese Soymeal futures hit all-time high

• NOPA Crush numbers out at 11:00 AM central time

Coming into the morning trade break corn is down 3 cents, soybeans up 3 cents, and Chicago wheat off 3 cents. Soybeans has been showing relative strength in the last couple trade sessions on anticipation for strong NOPA crush numbers being released at 11 AM CST today. Expectations in this NOPA report fell within a relatively wide range from 124.7 million bushels to 141 million bushels but the average analyst guess was 132.26 million bushels crush, and soy oil stocks of 1.990 billion. If realized this would be largest April crush in 5 years.

September 2014 Dalian Soymeal contract in China hit an all-time high today. This should help soy plants in that country which have been suffering from negative margins for quite some time. Also, another positive story for Soybeans, which was reported yesterday, is that Shendong Sunrise Group which is China’s largest soy buyer said it wouldn't default on soybean contracts despite facing large losses.

Informa Economics will release their updated 2014 acreage expectation this morning at 10:30 AM central time. These estimates will be based on their survey completed in early May and will be compared to the 81.5 million acres of soybeans, 91.7 million acres of corn, and 55.8 million acres of wheat projected by the USDA in their May 9th report.

Old Crop Export Sales

 

 

Expected

Reported

Corn

200k to 400k

343,00

Soybeans

-100k to -50k

73,600

Wheat

100k to 300k

54,900

 

Exports sales were released this morning at 7:30 central time, showing a surprisingly strong week of U.S. sales for old crop soybeans. Sales were reported at 73,600 tonnes, well above the 50-100 tonne net cancellations expected. Corn export sales came in line with trade expectations while old crop wheat sales disappointed at just 54,900 tonnes.

There was also two reportable export sales announced this morning by the Foreign Ag Service. Exporters sold 120,000 tonnes of new crop U.S soybeans to China, and exporters sold 104,000 tonnes of old crop U.S corn to Mexico. 

 

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