Sep 1, 2014
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Cash Grain Insights

RSS By: Kevin McNew, AgWeb.com

Kevin McNew is President of Grain Hedge and Geograin. McNew was raised on a farm in central Oklahoma and received his bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University, and master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. For over a decade, he was a Professor of Economics at the University of Maryland and Montana State University, focusing on commodity markets. He has received numerous academic awards for his research and outreach work, and was (and still is) widely regarded for boiling down complex economic issues into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life.

 

WASDE Pre-Report Expectations

Jun 10, 2014

 JUNE USDA REPORT TOMORROW AT 11:00 AM CENTRAL TIME


Grains traded sideways in the overnight session with corn up a penny, wheat down a penny, and soybeans trading six cents higher on the July contract. New crop beans were off a penny. The overnight session was very light in terms of news and trades continue to eye tomorrow’s USDA numbers. Below is a table detailing trade expectations for the new crop.

 

2014/15 Ending Stock Estimates

 

June Expected

May Reported

Change

Corn

1,716

1,726

-10

Soybeans

319

330

-11

Wheat

552

540

+12

 *Million Bushels


Crop Progress was released yesterday afternoon, but did little to move markets in the overnight session. Emergence is in good shape across the grain belt with 92% of corn, 71% of soybeans, and 80% of spring wheat now emerged. Corn condition ratings were down 1% on the week to 75% good-to-excellent. The first soybean good-to-excellent rating was released showing 74% of the crop rated either good or excellent. Yesterday’s report was not new information for the trade, just further confirmation that planting has wrapped up in good time and crop conditions remain very good over the first several weeks of the growing season. 

 

Yesterday corn was blindsided by news that China has stopped issuing permits of DDGs from the United States on concerns they might contain an unapproved GMO. This had immediate impact on the cash market here in the U.S. where export barge bids dropped by about 10 percent on Monday to the lowest levels since January.  

 

This appears to be a replay of the same events that occurred at the end of last year when China rejected nearly 250,000 metric tons of U.S DDG’s due to presence of Syngenta’s MIR 162. Following the rejections at the end of the year DDG imports rebounded sharply in China surging to a near record high in April at 613,678 metric tons. The latest move out of China will continue to negatively impact corn especially as the market was digesting a great start to this year’s crop.

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