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Cash Grain Insights

RSS By: Kevin McNew, AgWeb.com

Kevin McNew is President of Grain Hedge and Geograin. McNew was raised on a farm in central Oklahoma and received his bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University, and master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. For over a decade, he was a Professor of Economics at the University of Maryland and Montana State University, focusing on commodity markets. He has received numerous academic awards for his research and outreach work, and was (and still is) widely regarded for boiling down complex economic issues into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life.

 

Weaker Beans Overnight

Dec 17, 2013

On Monday, corn inspections were below trade expectations at 25.1 MB. But 34%, or 8.6 MB, were headed to China despite Chinese quarantine officials rejecting several cargoes of U.S. corn that tested positive for an unapproved GMO corn variety since mid November. Also hindering the corn market is a weaker export basis as river water levels fall. At St. Louis, water gauge levels were at a minus 2.27 feet on Monday afternoon. It was forecast to remain around minus 2.1 feet for the next week then recede to a minus 4.1 feet a week later, according to the National Weather Service. Several barges hit ground in the St. Louis area over the weekend due to the low water, the U.S. Coast Guard said.

For soybean’s, Monday’s NOPA crush for November came in below expectations at 160.1 MB, but was still the largest in nearly 4 years. Although it fell 1 MB short of expectations, soymeal exports bested expectations and helped put a bid under the soy complex on Monday. Also, USDA reported another week of big soybean export inspections - 62.5 MB for the week ending Dec 12.

In wheat, Egypt’s GASC announced a snap tender to buy wheat for late January delivery, as prices continue to sink lower. It is unlikely that US concerns will win the business with much of the export capacity into January devoted to corn and bean exports. Weekly export inspections were reasonably strong at 17.5 MB. Year to date exports for wheat are still running over a 100 MB ahead of the pace needed to reach USDA’s export forecast of 1,100 MB.

2013 12 17

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