Jul 11, 2010
Oats recovered much their lost ground, with little change in the Commitment of Traders number. Oats is the only one of the group that has small specs long; the other three all have small specs short. A struggle upward seems likely, but getting to $3 will be an achievement. And there is potential, at least on the chart, for oats to go down from here. Ugh!
Corn had a decent week. Absent a major bearish surprise, we will see prices in the 400s; however, it will take a bit of weather or a crop disaster somewhere in the world to get beyond the 440-450 zone, all basis December. This week the funds added to their longs and the commercials subtracted from theirs. As it has been for some time, only the small specs are short.
Beans rallied this week, showing prospects of getting into the 1080 region, basis November. A lot of weather or some great South American disaster will be needed to get beans beyond $11 during 2010. This week the commercials got a little longer, the trend following funds a little less long and only small specs are short.
Wheat was the happiest of this week’s campers. On the other hand, it had a really shabby start from 475 a month ago (basis December). We should see higher prices from here, perhaps, maybe, possibly another dollar a bushel. The commercials showed they like these prices better than those of a month ago by selling some of their longs; the funds decided to buy most of what the commercials sold, and the specs got a little shorter.
Let’s hope for good crops AND higher prices. I’ll be watching for signs of weakness, i.e., a top in prices, as we get towards harvest. If and when, that is the time to hedge some or all of one’s crops. Another tidbit, if not taken too seriously, is the charts are setting up as if prices will rise considerably in 2011. It will be interesting to see what reality brings, ten months down the pike. For now, let’s hope for good enough crops and high enough prices to keep our nations greatest risk takers, farmers, at least comfortable for another year.