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March 2009 Archive for Chip's Chore Time

RSS By: Chip Flory, Pro Farmer

Chore time for me isn't what it used to be when I was growing up on our eastern Iowa farm. In fact... I don't even have horse chores to do any more!

Corn acres below bean acres!?!

Mar 13, 2009
Chip Flory

 

Chore time for me isn't what it used to be when I was growing up on our eastern Iowa farm, but taking care of two horses in the morning before I head in for work gives me a little time to think about the day ahead. Each morning, stop at this spot to get a feeling for the "tone of the day" - and some attitude about agriculture and the markets.

I was thinking…

... I know, I know... long time, no write!

Honestly, it's been a busy winter... seminars and talks and -- oh... following the Denver, Iowa, Girls' basketball team to the state tournament!! For those of you that have been reading Chore Time for several years, you know I helped coach some of these girls when they were just getting started in "competitive play." When this year's juniors were in sixth grade, they set the goal of getting to the state tournament. Now that they've had a taste, their goals are higher for next year! Unfortunately, the Denver Cyclones got beat in the first round to the eventual runner-ups from Cascade, but they had a great season!

Okay... onto something more "timely." Every now and then, I don't mind taking something out of Pro Farmer newsletter and putting it in Chore Time to try to spur some conversation. Here's most of an item from the front page of this week's Pro Farmer:

"Informa Economics Inc. reportedly estimated 2009 corn plantings at 81.419 million acres... that’s lower than the consulting firm’s 2009 soybean plantings estimate of 81.502 million acres!

Corn: Informa reportedly sees 2009 harvested corn acres of 74.387 million and is projecting a yield of 159.3 bu. per acre for a crop of 11.85 billion bushels.
PF Perspective: Add in USDA’s 2008-09 carryover estimate of 1.74 billion bu. and imports of 15 million bu. for total 2009-10 supply of 13.605 billion bushels. Subtract conservative 2009-10 total demand of 12.8 billion bu. and new-crop carryover would be 805 million bushels.
 

Soybeans: Informa reportedly sees 2009 harvested bean acres of 80.695 million acres and is projecting a yield of 42.9 bu. per acre for a crop of 3.46 billion bushels.
PF Perspective: Add in USDA’s 2008-09 carryover estimate of 185 million bu. and imports of 5 million bu. for total 2009-10 supply of 3.65 billion bushels. Subtract aggressive demand of 3.15 billion bu. and new-crop carryover would bulge to 500 million bushels."
 

I'm not about to argue if those estimates are right or wrong -- this winter has been so screwed up that trying to guess your attitudes about the 2009 crop mix has been exceptionally difficult. But, I do know if we harvest corn from less than 75 million acres in 2009, I don't want to be too aggressive with new-crop corn sales for now! And if corn plantings are that low, this summer's trade should be unbelievably sensitive to any yield-threatening weather.

Obviously, the opposite is true for soybeans. If acres are that high, we'll need to take our "profit lumps" on soybeans this year. And with that many acres planted to beans, it'd take "the mother of all droughts" to get bean traders concerned about new-crop supplies.

For information on Pro Farmer, drop a note to Shelley or call 1-800-772-0023.

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