Get Ready for Crop Updates.
Nov 09, 2009
Chore time for me isn't what it used to be when I was growing up on our eastern Iowa farm, but doing morning horse chores gives me a little time to think about the day and week ahead..
I was thinking…
... about the Nov. 1 Crop Production Report coming from USDA Nov. 10. The average trade guess ahead of the report (according to a survey by Dow Jones newswire) is for a national average corn yield of 163.7 bu. per acre. The range of guesses is 159.8 bu. per acre to 165.0 bu. per acre. The average crop estimate is 12.995 billion bu.; the guess range is 12.674 billion to 13.400 billion bushels.
On soybeans, the average pre-report trade estimate on yield is 42.7 bu. per acre with a guess range of 41.6 bu. to 44.1 bu. per acre. The average guess on the bean crop is 3.269 billion bu. with a guess range of 3.187 billion to 3.379 billion bushels.
In its November crop update, Informa Economics, Inc., reportedly estimated a national average corn yield of 164.8 bu. per acre with the crop at 13.064 billion bushels. That's what Informa reportedly expects for the final estimate from USDA.
In October, Informa reportedly expected a final corn crop of 13.393. In its November update, Informa reportedly told clients, "Implied harvest shortfalls from expectations four to six weeks ago exceed 250 million bu. for corn and nearly 30 million bu. for soybeans. Informa rightfully cut those bushels from its October final crop expectations. But, what if USDA was right on Oct. 1 with its crop estimate of 13.018 billion bushels? Cutting those 250 million bu. from USDA's Oct. estimate would leave the crop well under 12.8 billion bushels.
We're sticking with our Aug. 25 estimate of 160.1 bu. per acre and crop estimate of 12.807 billion bu. -- an estimate than included a "plus or minus 1%" range. That makes the range on yields of 158.5 bu. and 161.7 bu. per acre; the crop range from 12.679 billion and 12.935 billion bushels. Even with light test weights and damaged crops, yields are still robust in most areas this fall. That makes a national average corn yield under 160 bu. per acre unlikely. But, a final yield between 160.1 bu. and 161.7 bu. per acre seems reasonable. That would put the crop between 12.807 billion at 12.935 billion bushels.
Our Aug. 25 estimate on soybeans was a national average yield of 41 bu. per acre and a crop of 3.150 billion bushels. That estimate came with a range of plus or minus 2%. Harvest results are making the 41-bu. yield estimate feel light, so we'll take the "plus 2%." That puts our national average yield estimate at 41.8 bu. per acre with the crop at 3.213 billion bushels.