Getting ready for the Midwest Crop Tour!
Aug 10, 2009
Chip Flory
Chore time for me isn't what it used to be when I was growing up on our eastern Iowa farm, but taking care of two horses in the morning before I head in for work gives me a little time to think about the day ahead. Each morning, stop at this spot to get a feeling for the "tone of the day" - and some attitude about agriculture and the markets.
I was thinking…
... about the Bremer Co. Fair!
I know the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour is close when the Bremer Co. Fair comes to an end. Well... I spent yesterday afternoon working with my 4-H club to help clean up the fair grounds (washing trash cans... yuck!), which means Tour is right around the corner. I'd call it another successful fair for the kids. Daughter Emily (who will be a senior in school this fall) placed fourth with her horse in halter, was second in showmanship and won western pleasure walk-trot and western pleasure. She also had the reserve-champion pair of market lambs and has a photo going on to the state fair. Son Thomas (who will be a freshman in school this fall) won a market lamb class and had a picture and his shooting sports project considered for state fair, but didn't get anything through (but he did get an honorable mention).
And even though I said "this fall" for when the kids will be a senior and a freshman... it's actually next week! And since the fair is over and the kids start school next week... it must be time for Crop Tour!
AgWeb.com is home of Crop Tour coverage --
As always, you'll be able to find all the details from the 2009 Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour at AgWeb.com with additional coverage available at profarmer.com. As added coverage on profarmer.com, PF Sr. Market Analyst Brian Grete will be offering some perspective on likely market impacts from what we find out on Tour.
And believe it or not...
You can follow comments from me on the western leg of the Tour and from PF News Editor Roger Bernard on the eastern leg on Twitter! Now... we're both new to this Twitter thing, but I think we've got it figured out. We'll drop notes out throughout the day about what we're seeing on Tour. We'll try to stay away from some of the "goofy" stuff that people "tweet" about... but you might just also find out where to get a good tenderloin, a hot-beef or even fried pickles if you're signed up for our tweets.
Just go to www.twitter.com, and signup for the service. After you create an account (it's free), click on "Find People" and type in "Midwest Crop Tour." After you get there, click on "Follow." After that, everytime we update, you can get the comment either on Twitter or your cell phone.
When we update, we'll tell you where we're at, what we're seeing in the field and any other general comments we think are worthy of some of the 140 characters we're allowed to use in each comment.
Before we head out on the road...
I try to give this "warning" every year, but there are always some Tour-followers that for one reason or another don't seem to get the message. Please do not directly compare the Tour results to USDA's Aug. 1 estimates for each state.
The absolute best way to use the data is to compare year-to-year changes in Tour estimates to USDA's year-to-year change in yield estimates. For example, if USDA's Aug. 1 yield estimate for Indiana is down 5% from year-ago and the Crop Tour yield estimate is down 5% from last year's Tour findings, we call that "a match." That, however, does not mean the calculated Crop Tour yield will match USDA's Aug. 1 estimate... just that the year-to-year change matches up.
If, however, USDA's estimate for Indiana is down 5% from year-ago, but the Crop Tour yield estimate is steady with last year's Tour findings, you'll likely hear Roger say something like, "It looks like USDA cut a few too many bushels from last year's yield."
On the other hand, if USDA's Aug. 1 estimate for Indiana is down 5% from year-ago, but the Crop Tour yield is down 10% from last year's Tour findings, you'll probably hear Roger say something like, "USDA's Aug. 1 estimate is probably a little too optimistic for the yield potential in Indiana."
And even then, the numbers need some analysis --
Each Tour state has a different "historical error" for the calculated yield... and for good reason. In Illinois, for example, we don't scout lower-yielding acres in "far-down-state." That means the calculated yield from the Tour is, on average, 2.25 bu. above USDA's final yield estimate.
The same is true in Minnesota... the fact that we don't sample north of Highway 212 (about even with Minneapolis) means we sample only the highest yielding part of the state. So, on average since 2001, the Crop Tour yield has been 12.38 bu. above USDA's final estimate for the state. It's a similar story in South Dakota.
In Ohio, Indiana and Iowa, the average historical error since 2001 ranges from 2.38 bu. to 5.42 too low. (That means the calculated yield from Crop Tour is typically below USDA's final estimate for those states.) This is most true in Nebraska. On average in Nebraska, the Crop Tour yield estimate is nearly 17 bu. below USDA's final estimate. That's because the Crop Tour's typical mix of samples is about 40% irrigated and 60% dryland, when in reality the Nebraska corn crop is about 60% irrigated and 40% dryland.
The "neat" thing about this is we know how much the calculated Crop Tour yield estimate typically "misses" USDA's final estimate for each state. So, when looking at the Crop Tour data, please keep these "historical errors" in mind.
| |
Avg. yield
|
Avg. historical error
|
| |
since 2001
|
since 2001
|
| Ohio |
138.46 bu. per acre |
2.41 bu. too low |
| Indiana |
149.62 bu. per acre |
2.38 bu. too low |
| Illinois |
161.50 bu. per acre |
2.25 bu. too high |
| Iowa |
160.83 bu. per acre
|
5.42 bu. too low |
| S. Dakota |
120.81 bu. per acre |
6.44 bu. too high |
| Nebraska |
135.08 bu. per acre |
16.92 bu. too low |
| Minnesota |
167.00 bu. per acre |
12.38 bu. too high |
|
Average of all samples
|
152.40 |
5.85 bu. too high |
| |
|
|
| |
|
|
So... what's that mean?
It means... on average since 2001... we know how much the calculated yield from the Crop Tour typically misses USDA's final yield. So, when you see the Crop Tour yield from Ohio, you've got to add (on average) 2.41 bu. to the estimate. When you see the average yield from Minnesota, you've got to subtract (on average) 12.38 bu. per acre.
Of course... each year is different. That's why you can't just add 2.41 bu. per acre to the Crop Tour estimate for Ohio and subtract 12.38 bu. per acre for Minnesota to come up with the Pro Farmer estimates we'll deliver when the Tour is over. Maturity, disease, moisture levels... there are many factors we'll take into account when we estimate a yield for each of the Tour states.
And the Pro Farmer estimate is a different estimate!!!
Here's another source of confusion. On the afternoon of Friday, Aug. 21, at 1:30 p.m. CT, Pro Farmer will release our 2009 corn and soybean crop and yield estimates. I'm telling you right now... and trying to say it as loudly as I can... the Pro Farmer estimates will be different than those delivered by the Crop Tour. The reasons are very simple. As I've already (hopefully) explained, each state has a historical error that MUST be considered. And, of course, we'll figure in all the other factors that could eventually impact yield. And we will take a very close look at the average yield of all samples... it's like pulling 1,000-plus yield samples from one big corn field.
Tour area --
Every year, more than a few will say something like, "They didn't even travel through my area and we grow a lot of corn around here! Boy... if they'd just do the thing right, the numbers would have been a lot different!" First... we can't reach every area. And, frankly, we wouldn't even if we had more time. Again... the reason is simple. We've been running routes through the same areas since 1993. If we expand the routes north, south, east or west, we're starting to "play" with the data. By keeping the same boundaries year-to-year, we come home with comparable yield samples.
Okay... there you have it!
I decided to get this information "out there" a week before the Tour so I can try to answer any questions you might have before the Tour starts. One of the goals of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour is to be as transparent as possible... and this is part of that process. If you've got a nagging question that's always made you doubt the Tour, please ask it now. If you've got a question that might help me explain the Tour a little more clearly... please ask it now.
