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Chip's Chore Time

RSS By: Chip Flory, Pro Farmer

Chore time for me isn't what it used to be when I was growing up on our eastern Iowa farm. In fact... I don't even have horse chores to do any more!

July 18 Monday Morning Wake Up Call

Jul 18, 2011

Chip Flory

Every Monday morning, Pro Farmer editors record the "Monday Morning Wake Up Call." It's a recorded message available by clicking here.

But... if you'd rather read the report instead of listening, each Monday morning I'll update the copy from the call here to help set your agenda of key issues that will be impacting the grain and livestock markets in the week ahead.

Monday Morning Wake Up Call

Good morning ... this is your July 18th edition of the Pro Farmer Monday Morning Wake Up Call.

Weather will be the driving factor in the grain markets again this week. The early week weather update suggests the heat wave across the country won't be quite as severe or last quite as long as indicated in last Friday's forecast. That slight change in the outlook is the reason corn futures were under hefty pressure overnight, putting spillover pressure on soybeans and wheat. Based on overnight action at the slight change in the forecast, traders are looking for corn to open 13 to 15 cents lower; soybeans seven to 10 cents lower; and wheat 10 to 15 cents lower.

It will be a busy week in Washington. Critical discussions about raising the debt limit while reducing the budget shortfall will continue to dominate headlines. The House will do some "Grandstanding" this week by likely passing a proposal that would boost the debt ceiling, but only if congress also passes a constitutional amendment requiring a balanced budget. It seems like a great idea to many... but the Senate won't pass that bill. In the Senate, the focus will continue to be on reaching a deal to raise the debt ceiling. This morning, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said progress is being made and that he believes federal default has been taken off the table. That's helping support the U.S. dollar ahead of the grain market open, which could add to what is expected to be heavy pressure on the grain open.

Critical crop updates will come this afternoon in USDA's Weekly Crop Progress and Crop Condition Reports. Expect a mixed bag in the condition update. The corn crop in many areas is showing very little stress despite high temperatures. But, there are areas where soils are too dry and temps are too hot as the corn crop attempts to pollinate. Many areas will "survive" the week ahead with minimal yield impacts, but some areas will see corn yields slashed.

USDA will also release the July Cattle on Feed Report this Friday. After a sharp drop in cash cattle prices last week as the boxed beef market appeared to put in a short-term top, traders will start this week with a negative bias toward prices. Cash hogs are called steady, but bids should firm to keep supplies moving to town despite hot temps.

That’s your Pro Farmer Monday Morning Wake Up Call.

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