June 13 PF Monday Morning Wake Up Call
Jun 13, 2011
Every Monday morning, Pro Farmer editors record the "Monday Morning Wake Up Call." It's a recorded message available by clicking here.
But... if you'd rather read the report instead of listening, each Monday morning I'll update the copy from the call here to help set your agenda of key issues that will be impacting the grain and livestock markets in the week ahead.
Monday Morning Wake Up Call
Good morning ... this is the June 13th edition of the Pro Farmer Monday Morning Wake Up Call.
Another week of above-normal rains are expected across the Corn Belt with the heaviest rains expected in the northern Plains. Below normal temps are also expected in roughly the western half of the country, including the western Corn Belt. Above-normal temps are expected across much of the eastern Corn Belt this week.
There are some wide-ranging estimates of how many intended spring wheat and durum acres will go unplanted this year. The scary part is the lowest of the estimates is at 800,000 acres combined. Given the tight supplies of high-quality milling wheat in the country, losing 800,000 acres of spring wheat potential is too much, which should continue to limit selling interest in wheat futures.
Also limiting selling interest in wheat should be the premium the corn market currently holds to the Chicago wheat market. The corn-wheat price relationship should be encouraging more livestock producers to make a switch to wheat-based feed rations, which should limit selling interest in wheat.
One of the features in last week’s Supply & Demand report were the impressive increases in USDA’s estimates of Chinese corn and feed grain demand. It’s been thought USDA was behind the curve on consumption growth, but Chinese officials this weekend warned USDA’s usage increase is too aggressive. Now remember how China plays this game... if the country is saying estimates of grain and soybean demand in the country are too aggressive, they’re probably getting ready to buy more right now.
Busy week in Washington for agriculture – tomorrow, the Senate will consider the amendment from Republican Senator Tom Coburn of Oklahoma that would immediately end the ethanol blenders tax credit and the ethanol import duty. Look for ethanol proponents to offer an amendment in the Economic Development Administration reauthorization plan to counter the Coburn amendment.
Overnight, old-crop corn traded firm with new-crop corn modestly lower. Soybean futures were mostly 2 ½ to 5 cents lower and wheat was steady to 4 ¼ cents higher. Those will be the opening calls for the grain markets this morning.
That’s your Pro Farmer Monday Morning Wake Up Call.