Pro Farmer's Monday Morning Wake Up Call
Aug 15, 2011
Every Monday morning, Pro Farmer editors record the "Monday Morning Wake Up Call." It's a recorded message available by clicking here.
But... if you'd rather read the report instead of listening, each Monday morning I'll update the copy from the call here to help set your agenda of key issues that will be impacting the grain and livestock markets in the week ahead.
Monday Morning Wake Up Call
Good morning ... this is your August 15th edition of the Pro Farmer Monday Morning Wake Up Call.
Grain futures ended the overnight session higher, but below session highs as traders continue to sort out last week’s Crop Production Report, Supply & Demand update and individual reports coming in from around the Corn Belt.
The combination of USDA’s objective yield survey work and the results of the survey of farmers for corn yield potential as of August 1 resulted in a national average corn yield of 153 bu. per acre. While that’s just 0.2 bu. per acre better than last year’s final corn yield estimate, it is 12 bu. below USDA’s August 2010 corn yield estimate. Because ear populations are not likely much different than they were last year (but that’s just a guess since USDA omitted any comment about stalk or ear counts) and USDA used a five-year average ear weight in making the estimate, we’ve got to assume the farmer survey indicated much lower yield potential than year-ago. With that in mind, we see the potential for lower corn yield estimates from USDA in upcoming monthly updates as lighter-than-normal corn ear weights are factored into the equation.
We’ll be busy at Pro Farmer this week making final preps for the 2011 Midwest Crop Tour. Pro Farmer Sr. Analyst Brian Grete will lead the largest group of scouts ever on the eastern leg of the Tour and I will be heading up a large group of scouts on the western leg of the Tour, including a delegation of Chinese grain buyers, researchers and ag educators that are traveling with the U.S. Grains Council in the U.S. right now.
Grain traders will continue to track the weather closely, but it does look to be relatively non-threatening for the Corn Belt for the week ahead. There are, however, areas of the western Corn Belt that are too dry to promote kernel fill -- which is likely putting a dent in some of the western Belt’s yield potential. The 6- to 10-day outlook from the National Weather Service calls for mostly below-normal temps with normal rain in the east and below-normal rain in the west. Southern production areas are expected to remain hot and dry in the week ahead.
Weather will be a focus this week, but traders will also be forced to follow movement in the extremely volatile U.S. equity markets. Stock trade is viewed as a barometer of consumer confidence... and up and down trade in the Dow will impact grain trade again this week.
That’s your Pro Farmer Monday Morning Wake Up Call.